The price of three-bedroom semi-detached homes will increase by an average of 3% next year, Real Estate Alliance (REA) has predicted.
The estate agent's average house price index for Q4 shows that prices have risen 1.5% in the past three months due to a continued shortage of supply.
House prices in Dublin and the other cities outpaced Ireland’s large towns and commuter counties as mortgage-approved buyers chased properties within their price range.
The study concentrates on sale prices for the three-bed semi, Ireland's typical stock home, to give an accurate picture of the second-hand property market.
Time taken to reach sale agreed nationally has been steady at five weeks as low supply continues to drive sales in an increasing interest rate environment.
Prices in Dublin city increased 1.5% in Q4, meaning that the average three-bed semi in the capital is now selling at €511,667, an increase of 3% year-on-year.
“Dublin is becoming a two-tier market, with the average house price proving to be an affordability ceiling,” said REA spokesperson Barry McDonald.
“While our agents predict an average 1% increase across 2024, this varies according to prices in their immediate area.
"Agents on the west side of Dublin recorded notable increases in Q4, with Lucan prices rising by €20,000 to €435,000 (4.8%) and Tallaght increasing by 3.5% to €290,000. In areas such as Rathcoole (€335,000, 1.4%) the market is chasing affordability, and a scarce supply of properties has been selling at a faster pace."
“However, while these agents are predicting rises of 3-5% in 2024, areas where prices are above the average Dublin price showed little to no growth in Q4 and are forecasting price falls in the next 12 months.
“Across the country, agents are reporting no let-up in demand, but a supply of stock which is at an all-time low.”
Mortgage-approved first-time buyers remain the main market drivers, accounting for 59% of sales nationally, and rising to over 80% in commuter counties such as Meath.
Cities outside of Dublin experienced a 1.7% uplift in selling prices in Q4, with average prices now standing at €323,000, up 4.5% from this time last year.
Prices in Cork increased 1.4% in Q4 and 4% year-on-year to €370,000, and agents predict prices will rise a further 4% in 2024.
Galway prices rose 0.6% in the quarter to €337,000 and similar increases are expected next year, while prices in Limerick city rose 1.8% to €290,000 and Waterford prices were up to €295,000.
REA expects the price of the average three-bed semi to increase 3% next year.
Homes in the commuter belt showed the most stability in 2023, rising by just 2.2% to €319,722, with counties within travelling distance of the capital recording growth of just 0.2% in the past three months.
The biggest annual rise came in large towns nationwide, which rose by 6.6% annually and 1.2% in the quarter to €223,638, while Co Waterford experienced the highest price increase on a county-by-country basis at 14% (€245,000).
Photo: Barry McDonald. (Pic: Supplied)
