Oberwhelming Defeat - August 27, 2024

Insiderbaseball - Fantasy Baseball · 2 years ago · 130 views

Bailey Ober, SP, Twins Bailey Ober got lit up by the Braves on Monday, allowing 9 runs on 7 hits and 2 walks in 2 innings. He struck out two. This was reminiscent of his first start of the season when he allowed 8 runs to the Royals in 1.1 innings, and unfortunately, just those two starts alone are enough to ruin his ratios for the entire season. Despite being very effective in most of his starts, his season ERA now sits at 4.06, a disappointment for anyone who owns him in roto leagues. If you play in a weekly league you have fared far better rostering him, as he still has ace upside when everything is working right. He has a 33% chase rate (89th percentile) which has led to an above-average strikeout rate (26.3%) and walk rate (6.2%). I don't think he has lost a step due to this start, it's just a blowup start that you, unfortunately, have to live with. I would still trust him next time out, tentatively scheduled to be against the Blue Jays. Matt Wallner, OF, Twins Matt Wallner went 2 for 3 with a home run on Monday. It was his 10th home run in just 49 games, and he is now slashing .271/.403/.612 on the year. He spent the majority of the season in AAA but has been on fire since rejoining the major league squad on July 7. His baseball savant page looks as good as it could possibly get, as he's hitting the ball extremely hard very often. He has a 94 mph average exit velocity, 25.7% barrel rate, 55.7% hard-hit rate, and is even walking 11% of the time. Those are numbers you would expect to see from some of the game's best, and Wallner doesn't seem to be slowing down. Of course, it's still a small sample compared to the rest of the league, but make sure he is rostered in any league where more than 36 OFs are started. He was a popular deep sleeper pick coming into the year, and it looks like he has finally figured things out. There's no reason to keep him out of your lineup until he shows a sign of cooling off. Randy Arozarena, OF, Mariners Randy Arozarena went 1 for 3 with a three-run home run on Monday. It was just his second home run since becoming a Mariner at the trade deadline, but hopefully, this is the start of better things to come. He has been disappointing on the season as a whole, slashing just .213/.331/.385 with 17 home runs and 20 stolen bases. A potential 20/20 season is nice on paper, but his batting average is a huge liability in fantasy. He has struck out too much (25.2%), and even when he does make contact, he has a sweet-spot rate of just 29% (8th percentile). He is still a decent power-speed threat, but his days as an elite fantasy outfielder might be coming to an end. Dylan Crews, OF, Nationals Dylan Crews made his MLB debut on Monday, going 0 for 3 with a walk and a strikeout. It was an uneventful debut for him, but that doesn't mean you should lose sight of his upside. Drafted second overall just last year, he was one of the best college hitters of all time. That success continued into the minor leagues, where he slashed .270/.342/.451 with 13 HR and 25 SB on the year. He's earned a cup of coffee this year and should be rostered in all five outfielder leagues and most three outfielder leagues if you don't have a lot of outfield depth. Even if he doesn't break out in the final month of this season, he remains an elite asset in dynasty leagues. Max Fried, SP, Braves Max Fried picked up the win on Monday, pitching five innings and allowing three runs (one earned) on four hits while striking out seven. He only threw 73 pitches, and it was a bit of an odd start. The Braves scored 9 runs in the first two innings to take a massive lead, before needing to wait out a pretty lengthy rain delay. Fried came back out to the mound after the delay to last the five innings needed to earn him the win. He looked rusty after coming off of the IL on August 4th, but it looks like he has finally settled back into things. He has a 3.50 ERA on the season with a 126:46 K:BB in 133.3 innings. It's about what we expected from him, coming into the year, as he's not a strikeout pitcher but excels by limiting hard contact. His 85.9 mph average exit velocity and 58.4% ground ball rate both rank in the top four percent of the league, and his 4.7% barrel rate is in the top ten percent. He should once again head into next season as a borderline top-20 starting pitcher for fantasy.