2024 ZiPS Projections: Los Angeles Angels

5 months ago 38

The Angels without Shohei Ohtani look a bit like The Office without Steve Carell.

For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Los Angeles Angels.

Batters

Let’s get the good news out of the way first: The 2023 Angels, at 73–89, finished with far fewer wins than you would expect from the available talent. This year, they ought to get a full slate of games from Zach Neto, whom ZiPS likes very much and sees significant growth from, and Nolan Schanuel, whom both ZiPS and Steamer like going forward. It’s also likely that Logan O’Hoppe, recovered from a torn labrum that required surgery, beats his 51 games played last season. Even Anthony Rendon has a chance to be significantly healthier in 2024. Mike Trout only managed 82 games last season, and while we should no longer be bullish about his health, he certainly has a fighter’s chance at playing more often. ZiPS thinks Michael Stefanic would be a good stopgap option at second — kind of the Angels’ version of peak Joey Wendle, if they let him play 120 games and see what happens. I’d be tempted to go with Stefanic at second, Luis Rengifo at third, and then Rendon as the primary DH until he shows that he can actually remain healthy, leaving Brandon Drury in a kind of supersub role.

But now we have the bad news: The 2023 Angels may have played under their abilities, but that team also had Shohei Ohtani, so the loss of that production will cancel out a good chunk of the bounceback. The depth chart doesn’t look so bad, but it’s also paper-thin, with ZiPS having little faith in most of the emergency fill-ins. O’Hoppe’s contributions get held back by Matt Thaiss, and the numbers at first take a hit from the projected playing time for Drury and Evan White.

Also, help isn’t on the way with one noticeable exception: Kyren Paris, one of only seven hitters in the entire organization that projects to at least five WAR over the next five years (and all of them have already been mentioned). ZiPS agrees with my colleague Eric Longenhagen, who has the Angels with baseball’s worst farm system. That’s a big issue for a disappointing team that has to replace a generational talent.

Pitchers

ZiPS doesn’t see the rotation as a serious problem, but it doesn’t see it as a notable strength, either. Reid Detmers, Patrick Sandoval, and Griffin Canning are a relatively dependable top three and are all competent innings-eaters, but the computer doesn’t see much high-end upside, and neither do I. ZiPS projects a better season coming up from Tyler Anderson, whom I always overrate because his delivery destroys my timing in MLB: The Show, but it’s not like he’s going to wake up tomorrow and become Tom Glavine. And while ZiPS likes Chase Silseth fine and thinks that there’s a bigger number of capable emergency fill-ins should the Angels get hit by the injury bug again, there’s just not a lot of high potential or pizazz there.

The bullpen, on the other hand, looks like a disaster if you buy what ZiPS is selling. Not a single projected reliever has an ERA on the good side of four. Most of this group is in their 30s, and two of the actually young options, José Soriano and Ben Joyce, have walk issues to iron out.

Right now, the Angels look like a .500 team, which is actually a significant step up from last season. But the ceiling of this group is low without the benefit of the floor being high. Unless they make some huge moves on the dwindling crop left out there in free agency, I’m not sure how you get a 95-win season out of this team.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Mike Trout R 32 CF 382 323 58 83 17 1 21 60 51 107 2 1
Logan O’Hoppe R 24 C 397 347 49 89 11 1 21 56 40 84 2 2
Zach Neto R 23 SS 365 316 51 78 17 0 13 47 28 86 6 1
Michael Stefanic R 28 2B 510 451 55 123 17 1 6 53 46 56 4 4
Taylor Ward R 30 LF 438 383 63 101 22 1 16 55 45 93 4 2
Nolan Schanuel L 22 1B 467 400 72 102 19 2 16 56 58 82 2 1
Luis Rengifo B 27 2B 491 446 58 115 18 4 14 58 36 88 7 4
Gio Urshela R 32 3B 392 364 42 102 18 2 10 46 22 72 2 1
Charles Leblanc R 28 2B 422 378 48 89 16 3 12 54 40 130 4 2
Trey Cabbage L 27 1B 476 434 58 101 19 2 22 72 34 184 15 2
Brandon Drury R 31 2B 491 453 56 111 25 2 19 70 28 123 1 2
Anthony Rendon R 34 3B 233 198 27 52 12 0 6 28 28 38 1 1
C.J. Cron R 34 1B 434 390 52 95 18 1 18 59 34 115 0 1
Kyren Paris R 22 SS 558 486 69 101 21 2 11 57 60 186 25 3
Mickey Moniak L 26 CF 448 421 50 100 18 5 18 58 20 140 6 3
Taylor Jones R 30 3B 311 277 40 63 16 0 9 38 28 85 2 1
Jo Adell R 25 RF 448 408 58 93 19 2 22 67 32 149 6 2
Kevin Padlo R 27 3B 420 373 51 81 18 1 12 46 41 125 6 2
Brett Phillips L 30 CF 339 291 44 53 7 3 10 34 39 137 10 2
Matt Thaiss L 29 C 371 322 42 71 12 1 10 40 42 93 2 1
Eduardo Escobar B 35 3B 429 396 48 93 16 4 15 52 29 102 1 1
Evan White R 28 1B 163 148 19 32 6 0 7 23 13 49 1 1
Gustavo Campero B 26 C 232 211 29 47 11 2 5 30 14 54 9 3
Randal Grichuk R 32 LF 486 451 58 109 21 2 16 55 28 113 2 2
Jared Oliva R 28 RF 352 322 42 75 15 4 6 40 22 93 12 4
Mike Moustakas L 35 3B 331 300 33 69 15 0 10 36 22 81 1 1
Livan Soto L 24 SS 516 462 54 100 15 3 6 45 45 137 4 3
Zach Humphreys R 26 C 258 226 27 48 10 1 3 23 26 71 5 3
Chris Okey R 29 C 224 205 21 45 6 2 4 22 13 64 1 1
Willie Calhoun L 29 RF 293 264 32 66 11 1 8 34 25 42 0 1
David Calabrese L 21 CF 544 491 56 97 19 4 9 49 45 181 9 5
Chad Wallach R 32 C 291 260 27 51 9 1 8 30 25 93 1 1
Eric Wagaman R 26 1B 236 216 22 49 9 1 6 24 17 60 4 1
Adrian Placencia B 21 2B 547 478 61 94 17 2 11 51 58 194 12 7
Bryce Teodosio R 25 CF 413 376 41 71 13 1 7 41 27 167 10 5
Jordyn Adams R 24 CF 494 450 56 94 15 4 9 48 35 167 24 4
Gabe Matthews L 26 1B 422 363 39 72 15 0 10 48 45 140 1 1
Daniel Murphy L 39 1B 182 168 18 41 7 0 2 15 13 29 0 1
Jared Walsh L 30 1B 427 384 44 83 17 1 16 52 37 144 1 1
Aaron Whitefield R 27 LF 348 319 38 65 11 2 5 32 24 124 17 6
Anthony Mulrine R 26 C 196 170 15 31 6 0 1 16 14 56 0 1
Jack López R 31 SS 347 323 37 70 14 2 7 37 16 109 7 3
Ryan Aguilar L 29 1B 311 270 35 47 7 1 6 30 34 125 4 1
Orlando Martinez L 26 DH 467 432 48 102 21 3 9 49 27 116 4 3
Tucker Flint L 23 RF 505 443 52 91 20 3 9 56 46 170 3 3
Kevin Maitan B 24 3B 320 295 26 57 10 1 4 29 20 118 1 1
D’Shawn Knowles B 23 CF 512 466 54 95 18 4 3 40 32 161 16 6
Myles Emmerson R 26 C 260 240 24 43 8 0 1 15 18 91 1 1
Preston Palmeiro L 29 LF 361 330 34 71 16 1 5 32 27 88 2 1
Werner Blakely L 22 3B 372 332 38 59 13 2 5 34 34 159 12 1
Arol Vera B 21 SS 570 524 57 106 15 2 4 42 29 176 8 4
Sonny DiChiara R 24 1B 318 281 23 52 9 0 4 29 28 127 0 1
Joe Stewart R 26 LF 478 448 44 93 14 3 3 40 23 154 20 5

Batters – Advanced
Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP Def WAR wOBA RC
Mike Trout 382 .257 .366 .511 139 .254 .318 -1 2.8 .371 61
Logan O’Hoppe 397 .256 .345 .476 124 .219 .281 -7 2.1 .353 58
Zach Neto 365 .247 .338 .424 109 .177 .300 -1 1.9 .333 47
Michael Stefanic 510 .273 .352 .355 97 .082 .301 2 1.7 .316 59
Taylor Ward 438 .264 .347 .452 119 .188 .310 0 1.6 .346 62
Nolan Schanuel 467 .255 .360 .433 118 .178 .285 -2 1.5 .347 63
Luis Rengifo 491 .258 .318 .410 100 .152 .294 -1 1.4 .317 61
Gio Urshela 392 .280 .321 .423 104 .143 .326 0 1.3 .320 50
Charles Leblanc 422 .235 .313 .389 93 .153 .326 1 1.1 .307 48
Trey Cabbage 476 .233 .293 .438 98 .205 .346 4 0.9 .313 60
Brandon Drury 491 .245 .295 .435 98 .190 .296 -4 0.9 .313 59
Anthony Rendon 233 .263 .361 .414 114 .152 .299 -2 0.9 .339 30
C.J. Cron 434 .244 .313 .433 104 .190 .300 1 0.7 .321 53
Kyren Paris 558 .208 .305 .327 75 .119 .311 -4 0.6 .285 55
Mickey Moniak 448 .238 .277 .432 92 .195 .312 -2 0.5 .300 53
Taylor Jones 311 .227 .305 .383 89 .155 .295 0 0.5 .302 33
Jo Adell 448 .228 .292 .446 100 .218 .300 -2 0.5 .315 55
Kevin Padlo 420 .217 .298 .367 83 .150 .292 0 0.4 .292 43
Brett Phillips 339 .182 .283 .330 69 .148 .299 4 0.3 .274 30
Matt Thaiss 371 .220 .315 .357 86 .137 .279 -7 0.3 .298 37
Eduardo Escobar 429 .235 .287 .409 89 .174 .280 -3 0.3 .298 47
Evan White 163 .216 .288 .399 87 .182 .272 2 0.2 .299 18
Gustavo Campero 232 .223 .284 .365 78 .142 .276 -3 0.1 .282 25
Randal Grichuk 486 .242 .290 .404 89 .162 .289 1 0.1 .299 54
Jared Oliva 352 .233 .293 .360 80 .127 .309 3 0.0 .287 38
Mike Moustakas 331 .230 .287 .380 82 .150 .282 -3 -0.2 .288 33
Livan Soto 516 .216 .288 .301 63 .084 .295 1 -0.2 .265 42
Zach Humphreys 258 .212 .297 .305 67 .093 .296 -3 -0.2 .272 23
Chris Okey 224 .220 .275 .327 66 .107 .299 -2 -0.2 .266 19
Willie Calhoun 293 .250 .317 .390 94 .140 .271 -4 -0.2 .308 33
David Calabrese 544 .198 .269 .308 59 .110 .292 8 -0.2 .257 45
Chad Wallach 291 .196 .272 .331 66 .135 .270 -3 -0.3 .267 24
Eric Wagaman 236 .227 .284 .361 77 .134 .287 1 -0.3 .282 23
Adrian Placencia 547 .197 .288 .310 66 .113 .304 1 -0.4 .270 48
Bryce Teodosio 413 .189 .257 .285 50 .096 .317 8 -0.5 .244 32
Jordyn Adams 494 .209 .270 .320 63 .111 .310 0 -0.5 .261 45
Gabe Matthews 422 .198 .306 .322 74 .124 .291 2 -0.5 .284 36
Daniel Murphy 182 .244 .297 .321 71 .077 .285 0 -0.5 .275 16
Jared Walsh 427 .216 .290 .391 86 .174 .299 -2 -0.6 .294 44
Aaron Whitefield 348 .204 .261 .298 54 .094 .316 5 -0.8 .249 31
Anthony Mulrine 196 .182 .276 .235 44 .053 .265 -4 -0.8 .241 11
Jack López 347 .217 .261 .337 64 .121 .304 -6 -0.9 .260 31
Ryan Aguilar 311 .174 .277 .274 54 .100 .295 3 -0.9 .254 22
Orlando Martinez 467 .236 .282 .361 76 .125 .303 0 -1.0 .279 46
Tucker Flint 505 .205 .301 .325 73 .120 .311 -4 -1.1 .282 45
Kevin Maitan 320 .193 .253 .275 46 .081 .306 0 -1.2 .237 21
D’Shawn Knowles 512 .204 .258 .279 49 .075 .305 3 -1.3 .240 39
Myles Emmerson 260 .179 .239 .225 30 .046 .284 -2 -1.4 .213 14
Preston Palmeiro 361 .215 .277 .315 64 .100 .278 -3 -1.4 .263 30
Werner Blakely 372 .178 .263 .274 49 .096 .321 -7 -1.5 .245 27
Arol Vera 570 .202 .247 .261 41 .059 .297 2 -1.8 .228 37
Sonny DiChiara 318 .185 .274 .260 49 .075 .320 -5 -2.0 .246 20
Joe Stewart 478 .208 .255 .272 46 .065 .309 0 -2.2 .236 37

Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Player Hit Comp 1 Hit Comp 2 Hit Comp 3
Mike Trout Pedro Guerrero Jeff Heath Mickey Mantle
Logan O’Hoppe Mickey Cochrane Dave Valle Craig Biggio
Zach Neto Andy Beinbrink Trevor Sealey Wil Cordero
Michael Stefanic Ted Sizemore Marty Barrett Matt Duffy
Taylor Ward Eric Tipton Harry Rice Irv Noren
Nolan Schanuel Daric Barton Logan Morrison Elbie Fletcher
Luis Rengifo Kolten Wong Hughie Critz William Huisman
Gio Urshela Ramon Conde T.J. Rivera Miguel de la Hoz
Charles Leblanc Josh Fields Mike Derrick Frank Grundler
Trey Cabbage Donn Clendenon Carlos Peguero ??? Jose Vidal
Brandon Drury Russell Kerns Jeff Kent Tim Wallach
Anthony Rendon Mike Sharperson Heinie Groh Eric Campbell
C.J. Cron Corey Hart Ryan Ludwick Alan Knicely
Kyren Paris Cesar Crespo Brent Lillibridge Geronimo Pena
Mickey Moniak Al Martin?? Melky Mesa Adolis García
Taylor Jones Keith Ginter Adam Heether Bobby Etheridge
Jo Adell J.J. Davis Casper Wells Dave Arrington
Kevin Padlo Vic Ramirez Tom Lombarski Kevin Randel
Brett Phillips Bob Montag Jed Hansen Louie Meadows
Matt Thaiss Lou Berberet Tim Blackwell Joe Nolan
Eduardo Escobar Jim Morrison Art Fletcher Scott Spiezio
Evan White Wayne Tyrone Todd Trafton Wayne Belardi
Gustavo Campero Marty Pevey Choo-Choo Coleman Bruce Kimm
Randal Grichuk Jim McKnight Jerald Clark Les Layton
Jared Oliva McKay Christensen Adam Stern Ángel Pagán
Mike Moustakas Mike Pagliarulo Geoff Blum Harvey Storey
Livan Soto Ramón Vázquez Frank Baker Al Moran
Zach Humphreys Kevin Dultz Jeff Farnham Dennis Pelfrey
Chris Okey Joe Kmak Kevin Butler Reynaldo Oliver
Willie Calhoun Fred Hopke Al Leboeuf Ryan Sweeney
David Calabrese Darren Riley Jason Robertson Arturo McDowell
Chad Wallach Joe Hannah Larry Howard Steve Patchin
Eric Wagaman Nate Coronado Max Oliveras Mel McGaha
Adrian Placencia Harry Chappas Marlin Methven Calvin Portley
Bryce Teodosio Trey Martin Derek Vaughn Scott Houin
Jordyn Adams Derek Hill Darren Ford Juan Tolentino
Gabe Matthews Mike Papi Danny Hayes Graham Koonce
Daniel Murphy Sean Burroughs Tim Corcoran Ross Gload
Jared Walsh Bucky Jacobsen Jeff Kipila Robert Schuster
Aaron Whitefield Casio Grider Darren Ford Greg Strickland
Anthony Mulrine Eric Brooks Sammy Rodriguez Wally Rosa
Jack López Chris Basak Pablo Martinez Kristopher Negrón
Ryan Aguilar Lawrence Stankey Sherry Robertson Randy Curtis
Orlando Martinez Otis Green Brant Brown Jeff Kindel
Tucker Flint Danny Hayes Tim Norrid Todd Self
Kevin Maitan Marco Pernalete Marty Foley Jake Daubert
D’Shawn Knowles Wayne Housie Chavez Young Juan Tolentino
Myles Emmerson Patrick Arlis Scott Maynard Jose Gonzalez
Preston Palmeiro Justin Headley Rich Aldrete Sergio Cairo
Werner Blakely Gosuke Katoh Dale Soderholm Luis Alejandro Basabe
Arol Vera Donald Furnald Jose Coronado Santiago Perez
Sonny DiChiara Eduardo Figueroa Don Gilbert Casey DeGroote
Joe Stewart Rod Lindsey Ray Kruml Pedro Zapata

Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles
Player 80th BA 80th OBP 80th SLG 80th OPS+ 80th WAR 20th BA 20th OBP 20th SLG 20th OPS+ 20th WAR

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Mike Trout .280 .392 .573 161 3.8 .228 .337 .445 117 1.8
Logan O’Hoppe .281 .370 .540 147 3.1 .232 .319 .420 104 1.1
Zach Neto .273 .363 .478 130 2.8 .226 .315 .364 90 1.1
Michael Stefanic .297 .377 .394 114 2.8 .245 .324 .322 83 0.8
Taylor Ward .290 .372 .509 140 2.7 .239 .321 .405 100 0.6
Nolan Schanuel .283 .388 .486 139 2.7 .232 .336 .387 98 0.4
Luis Rengifo .284 .348 .455 118 2.6 .233 .295 .358 81 0.3
Gio Urshela .308 .351 .468 123 2.2 .252 .295 .376 87 0.5
Charles Leblanc .263 .337 .433 110 2.0 .210 .285 .344 74 0.1
Trey Cabbage .259 .325 .499 119 2.2 .200 .264 .377 73 -0.5
Brandon Drury .273 .323 .495 123 2.4 .220 .270 .381 79 -0.2
Anthony Rendon .295 .391 .467 133 1.4 .230 .327 .356 90 0.2
C.J. Cron .267 .336 .484 121 1.6 .214 .287 .378 83 -0.4
Kyren Paris .232 .331 .381 94 1.9 .185 .280 .289 60 -0.5
Mickey Moniak .263 .303 .487 111 1.6 .210 .251 .379 71 -0.7
Taylor Jones .255 .331 .429 107 1.2 .203 .276 .336 70 -0.2
Jo Adell .256 .321 .511 124 1.7 .200 .265 .387 78 -0.8
Kevin Padlo .242 .320 .417 100 1.3 .191 .273 .320 64 -0.6
Brett Phillips .211 .316 .392 92 1.3 .157 .250 .276 46 -0.5
Matt Thaiss .250 .345 .417 108 1.2 .197 .286 .303 67 -0.6
Eduardo Escobar .260 .314 .464 110 1.4 .206 .260 .353 68 -0.9
Evan White .246 .316 .458 109 0.6 .190 .259 .343 67 -0.3
Gustavo Campero .252 .313 .425 100 0.7 .196 .259 .315 60 -0.5
Randal Grichuk .269 .320 .455 111 1.4 .214 .264 .354 72 -1.0
Jared Oliva .255 .316 .406 96 0.8 .207 .266 .316 60 -0.8
Mike Moustakas .255 .314 .433 102 0.6 .202 .264 .332 63 -0.9
Livan Soto .240 .313 .338 82 1.0 .190 .262 .261 48 -1.1
Zach Humphreys .240 .330 .350 85 0.4 .184 .271 .269 49 -0.8
Chris Okey .254 .310 .393 92 0.5 .191 .249 .289 48 -0.7
Willie Calhoun .277 .346 .444 115 0.5 .226 .291 .343 76 -0.9
David Calabrese .224 .296 .354 77 0.9 .171 .241 .269 41 -1.5
Chad Wallach .224 .301 .389 84 0.4 .174 .243 .282 45 -1.0
Eric Wagaman .256 .315 .419 100 0.3