Northern B.C. driving study aims to improve wildfire evacuations

A University of Northern British Columbia (UNBC) PhD candidate is studying local driving behaviour to help improve wildfire evacuation planning.

According to a press release by UNBC, Alireza Noory, a natural resources and environmental studies (NRES) doctoral student, is studying how those driving decisions could help improve wildfire evacuation planning in northern B.C. and beyond.

“Using behaviour collected from local drivers can make evacuation forecasts more realistic and help local agencies plan safer and more effective evacuation strategies,” Noory said.

“This is important because many current evacuation models rely on general assumptions or data from other communities.”

Noory, working under the supervision of UNBC School of Engineering professor Mauricio Dziedzic and professor Mohab El-Hakim, has developed a driving simulator that recreates a section of Highway 97 North through Prince George.

The simulator, known as UNBCSIM, allows participants to drive the same section of the highway in two different scenarios: a typical day and a wildfire evacuation.

“The simulator will measure how drivers react during both scenarios: how quickly they respond at stops, how their speed changes, and how they accelerate and brake,” Noory explained.

“The data collected will be used to calibrate a separate computerized traffic model of Prince George that could help city officials and emergency planners examine how traffic may move during an evacuation and assess different strategies in advance of an emergency situation.”

As the research project has reached its participant recruitment phase, Noory is seeking eligible adult drivers from Prince George and the surrounding region to volunteer to drive the simulator.

According to the release, the PhD candidate is looking for participants from across a range of ages and driving experience to spend about an hour on the simulator in a research lab at UNBC’s Prince George campus.

“By observing volunteer participants in the controlled normal and wildfire scenarios, we can measure actual changes in driving behaviour,” he said.

“The results will show how local drivers adjust their behaviour when visibility, urgency, emergency messages and wildfire-related hazards are introduced.”

UNBC said that in addition to the data collected from volunteer participants, the research team will evaluate how well the simulator reflects real driving by comparing its speed data with floating-car measurements, which is the average speed of a car moving with the flow of traffic.

The comparison, according to the release, will help determine whether the simulator provides reliable information for calibrating the traffic evacuation model.

“This study will help strengthen evacuation planning in northern British Columbia by providing region-specific evidence about how drivers respond during wildfire emergencies,” Noory explained.

“The calibrated traffic model can be used to examine evacuation travel time, congestion, road closures and alternative traffic management strategies before an evacuation occurs.”

According to the release, the approach creates a repeatable framework that other wildfire-prone and northern communities in Canada could adapt.

Noory added that planning for a wildfire evacuation goes beyond transportation issues.

“It involves natural hazards, emergency management, human behaviour, municipal planning and public safety.”

Noory has a background in transportation and civil engineering in Iran and chose UNBC’s NRES program due to its interdisciplinary approach to complex environmental challenges. After moving to Prince George with his family to live and work, his experiences shaped his interest in research aimed at improving community safety.

Despite Noory’s development of the simulator as a practical research tool for northern communities, the potential applications extend far beyond this current study.

Noory also applied for and received a Canadian copyright certificate to protect the intellectual property of the simulator.

“The certificate recognizes the simulator as an original Canadian research and software product,” he explained. “And helps strengthen its position for future academic research, public-sector applications, partnerships and potential commercialization opportunities.”

For Noory, the project is about building partnerships that will strengthen community preparedness as well as advancing research with practical, real-world impact.

“I’m looking forward to connecting with residents living in and around Prince George who are willing to contribute to this effort and to collaborating with local organizations and agencies interested in wildfire evacuation, transportation modelling and emergency preparedness.”

Anyone who wishes to learn more about the research and/or participate in the study is asked to contact Alireza Noory at noory@unbc.ca.