Coming attractions: Tomorrow, Wednesday, join Bellwether at 12p ET for a LinkedIn Live conversation with insiders from NAGB and outside experts to discuss what’s happening on NAEP, why 12th-grade NAEP matters more than you might think, and why learning recovery still must be a front and center issue. I’m doing a fireside chat at UVA … Continue reading "Education Tax Credits In Virginia – A Win Win On the Politics?"
Coming attractions:
Tomorrow, Wednesday, join Bellwether at 12p ET for a LinkedIn Live conversation with insiders from NAGB and outside experts to discuss what’s happening on NAEP, why 12th-grade NAEP matters more than you might think, and why learning recovery still must be a front and center issue.
I’m doing a fireside chat at UVA the afternoon of January 26th in Bavarro Hall, would be great to see you there if you’re in the Charlottesville area. On the 30th I’m doing an Education Week webinar with HMH CEO Jack Lynch where we will discuss whether run prevention will be enough for the Red Sox to make the playoffs this year. (…it’s about AI and an interesting line-up, Jean-Claude Brizzard and Francine Alexander, I hope you can join).
ICYMI – a few things to watch in 2026. MLK on our rendezvous with chaos.
Breaking: Already under reelection pressure, well-regarded Senator Bill Cassidy (R) who chairs the senate committee that handles education officially has a Trump-endorsed primary challenger. This will impact education politics and policy.
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Wadin’ through the waste stormy winter
Let’s start with the high note. I came of age in the Mary Sue Terry and Douglas Wilder era of Virginia politics. Robert Frye, the first Black school board chair in Fairfax County, lived a few houses down from me. That first might not seem like a big deal now, but it was at the time. Abigail Spanberger becoming governor of Virginia this past weekend is another important—albeit, in my view, long overdue—first. It’s good to see. She’s going to have her hands full, though. Her pick for State Superintendent of Public Instruction, Jenna Conway, is a fantastic choice, serious talent.
Earlier this month, on his way out the door at the end of this term (Virginia governors only serve one), outgoing Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin (R) announced that Virginia would participate in the new K-12 education tax credit program included in last year’s tax bill—the “OB3,” or whatever you want to call it bill. On the one hand, the Virginia announcement was a little premature. The regulations for the new program (which we just talked about) aren’t done, and there are potential moving parts. On the other hand, Youngkin is a private citizen again, and he was in a hurry at the end of his term.
People predictably fell apart.
Let’s stipulate we probably won’t see the same reaction if Colorado Governor Jared Polis (D), who also said his state will participate, ends up as the Democratic nominee in 2028. Or if other blue state governors get int. Former Obama Secretary of Education Arne Duncan and former Democratic mayor Jorge Elorza have urged Blue states to participate. I’m not saying it’s a great policy you should embrace. I am suggesting you evaluate it on its merits rather than let partisanship rot your brain. There is a lot going on here around it.
Here’s a quick primer on the program with a very good set of FAQs and information about the basic structure if you want to learn more.
Premature Chadulation: You should always read Chad Aldeman, and he has a take on this Virginia move. But I think he’s too early. We don’t know exactly what the program looks like yet! And the Youngkin submission might be binding under some interpretations. It might not. It’s messy!
So let’s talk about the politics for a minute, because they’re interesting. These scholarships are cleverly designed, so what’s happening in Virginia has relevance elsewhere (and I’m not just saying that to encourage you to keep reading). I should note Iowa is also already in.
For Youngkin, the politics are straightforward. He gets a school choice talking point and a feather in his cap with the base. A knock on him on the political right is that he didn’t do enough on school choice while in office. I don’t think that’s entirely fair. Virginia’s constitution limits most kinds of school choice. A powerful entrenched education establishment, regulatory capture, and somewhat self-satisfied education culture limit things even more*. The votes were never there in the state legislature. He could only do so much.
Youngkin did open partnership lab schools around the state (I was involved in that effort), where public school districts (we call them divisions) and colleges and universities open public schools around specific focus areas. There are now schools focused on shipbuilding, health trades, data work, and aerospace, for instance. That’s a pretty middle-of-the-road idea that would barely occasion mention in a state like Colorado, or even New York or Massachusetts. And still, the fight over it was hammer and tongs the whole way. Regardless, fair or not, some folks on the right think Youngkin disappointed them on this front.
So getting Virginia into this new program early is all upside for Youngkin. He can say he worked to expand choice until his very last days in office. Whether as a legacy item or for a possible future run for public office, that’s a good talking point!
But Virginia has a new governor as of this weekend: Abigail Spanberger (D). She won in a romp in November in an election that didn’t have a lot to do with education. The conventional wisdom says Youngkin’s move puts her in a box. I think that’s wrong. I’m sure this wasn’t Youngkin’s intent, but the move arguably gives Spanberger optionality where she didn’t have it. Politicians love optionality.
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And her politics are more complicated.
If the decision on whether to participate had simply fallen to Spanberger, she would have faced cross-pressures between the teachers unions and education establishment, they loathe this program, and the prospect of explaining why Virginia would leave a lot of federal education money on the table. That’s an unappealing choice for Democratic governors and a real wedge. Again, like it or not, this is a clever program.
In Virginia, there are many wealthy taxpayers who can participate in the education tax credit program and claim the tax credit. National estimates range from 120 million to almost 140 million taxpayers. Virginia has plenty of those high earners. It will be awkward to explain why they are giving for tax credits to support education initiatives in other states.
Youngkin also created a political headache for Spanberger by listing a tentatively approved set of scholarship-granting organizations in Virginia. So this isn’t just abstract money flowing to other states. It will be easy to communicate what’s being left on the table for kids right here in Virginia. And just like national Dems went into overdrive to scuff up Youngkin wherever they could and dim his chances as a rising political star, national Rs will now try to do the same thing to Spanberger and this will be a target. I’d expect ads if she elects to forgo this program.
Beyond Virginia, keep an eye on how these politics evolve nationwide as the scholarships move from abstract idea to actual education initiatives in specific places.
For Spanberger, simply opting out could become a 2028 liability, depending on how the program plays out. When some Democratic governors opt in, those who opt out will need a better explanation than “Trump sucks.” One lesson Democrats still haven’t absorbed on education: people are deeply pragmatic when it comes to their own kids. Governors who opt out had better point to an education policy agenda so robust around genuine school improvement that it offsets the politics. “We didn’t do X because we are doing Y” can work—but only if Y isn’t the same old weak soup. There is an argument to be made around accountability.
In any event, this no longer presents a simple opt-in-or-opt-out argument in Virginia, because Youngkin just handed Spanberger several process-based options to push back. She could challenge the federal government on whether Virginia’s action was even legal, given that the regulations aren’t in place. People disagree about how binding these commitments are before the rules are finalized. It’s messy, and a lawsuit is possible.
She could also argue within Virginia that the timing was premature because the regulations aren’t final, and muddy the issue that way as Chad suggests. She could argue for pulling back once the regulations are final. The program puts the decision with governors, but legislatures could still get involved. The Attorney General could decide to get involved. A lot of plays.
Conversely, she could say the decision wasn’t hers, that Virginia is now obligated, and simply move forward. She could agree that Virginia is bound for 2027 and revisit the issue for 2028—when the political mood around the program may look different for any number of reasons, including other Trump administration actions or high-profile problems as the program is implemented. This could turn into an intramural squabble rather than blue on red.
I don’t know what she’ll do. But I do know this move expanded her options a lot more than it tied her hands. And as Democrats try to find their way with this program, that’s worth watching.
*You’d think a state with Virgina’s politics and demographics (and avowed commitment to equity) and where more than half of Black students, low-income, and Hispanic students are below basic on the NAEP at key milestones, so functionally unprepared for work, college, or the military, that there would be a fierce urgency to improve. You’d be wrong!
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