The Maui Real Estate Market Update September 2026

Maui Elite Property Blog · 6 hrs ago · 4 views

Maui Real Estate Market Report September 2026: Closed and Pending Sales Rise, Bill 88 Moving Forward Since my last market report in June, the Maui real estate market hasn’t changed dramatically. The market remains a buyer’s market, with values continuing to retreat but showing more and more signs of stability through increases in closed sales, new transactions, and decreases in inventory.  Even if the pace of the decline has slowed and sales are up, the catalyst to fully shift the cycle to a more neutral or inclining market remains elusive, especially as we head into a typically slower time of the year for the market in the fall.  Sales Are Up, and Hopefully Confirmation on the Bill 88 Lists Is On the Way The large increase in pending sales, particularly in the condo market, demonstrates that buyers are seeing their opportunity to take advantage of these massive price drops.  Some of the short-term rental inventory on both the Bill 9 and Bill 88 lists has started to sell in complexes like Wailea Ekahi, Palms at Wailea, and Kamaole Sands. As a result, condo inventory is slowly declining as sales rise.  The County Council and the Planning Commission continue to work, slowly but surely, on the Bill 88 hotel-zoning process, with most of us expecting the TIG’s exemption list to go through first, with an application process to follow for the complexes that are left off.  Hopefully, we elect Yuki Lei Sugimura as Maui Mayor this fall, as she has been opposed to Bill 9 from the beginning.  Maui Market By The Numbers Single Family Market The single-family home market hasn’t seen the dramatic value loss like the condo market, but values have been slowly edging downwards as overall demand has waned.  Year over year, the median sales price of a single-family home on Maui has gone down 7.9, from $1,302,500 to $1,200,000.  Inventory has remained steady with an 8.1-month supply, but new listings were down about 10 in August.  Maui Condo Market Year over year, the median condo sales price on Maui has fallen 13.1 from $650,000 to $564,950.  Months' supply of inventory dropped dramatically, nearly 20, from 15.2 months to 12.2 months, while new listings decreased 11.9.  Closed sales are up 19.3 and confirm the trend of the summer, with the first 3 consecutive months in which sales have risen in the condo market since the end of the last super buying cycle in 2022.  What I’m Seeing in the Maui Market As a Realtor I’ve personally had a busy summer with 6 closings in the last two months, representing 3 buyers and 3 sellers. I’ve noticed more buyers reaching out to me lately, but they are also very savvy and comp-sensitive as we navigate the market.  There are plenty of deals to be made as a buyer, and to make good ones, we need a little patience and a solid strategy, as some sellers can still be attached to their idea of price. As a seller, it's critical to get the pricing right the first time and avoid repeated price drops to find a buyer. Patience is also a virtue as a seller, as finding the buyer willing to pay your price can take a little time; however, I have gotten several listings under contract for sellers in less than 30 days this year. It’s all about presentation, price, and position Maui Real Estate Market Single Family Home Data August 2026 vs. August 2025 Pending Sales Up 2 Closed Sales Up 3.2 Days on Market Down 6.6 to 128 days  Median Sales Price Down 7.9 to $1,200,000  Average Sales Price Down 21.6 to $1,467,570 Inventory of Homes for Sale Up 4.4 to 473 active listings Months Supply of Inventory Even at 8.1 months Maui Real Estate Market Condo Data August 2026 vs. August 2025 Pending Sales Up 54.9 Closed Sales Up 19.3 Median Sales Price Down 13.1 to $564,950 Average Sales Price Down 21.9 to $893,388 Inventory of Condos for Sale Down 3.6 to 839 Months Supply of Inventory Down 19.7 to 12.2 months Evan's Closing Thoughts  Maui's market in mid-2026 can be characterized as correcting, if not corrected. Prices are correcting from historically elevated peaks, inventory is high but plateauing, and buyer interest, measured by pending sales, has begun to return.  The road back to balance will likely be gradual, shaped by interest rates, Lahaina's ongoing recovery, and continued demand from both local and mainland buyers watching for a sustainable entry point. It will take a few more months of rising pending sales to confirm this correction, but if that does happen, we could see prices fully stabilize and trend back upward. Please call me at 808-214-4799 or email me at [email protected] to discuss the market in more detail Maui Real Estate Market Report June 2026 The May 2026 Maui real estate sales statistics present an interesting picture of the current state of the Maui market. If you’ve been watching the market, you’ve noticed it's a buyer’s market on Maui, and prices have been softening for almost two years now. Even though it's a buyer's market, we still haven’t seen a noticeable increase in buying demand during this period, particularly in the condo market, due to concerns about Bill 9 and the higher interest rate cycle we find ourselves in.  However, in May, there was a 31 increase in pending sales in the condo market, along with positive news around Bill 88.  Bill 88 will essentially water down the impact of Bill 9 by allowing roughly half of the apartment-zoned condo complexes on the Minatoya List to upzone to hotel zoning while retaining their short-term rental rights.  The rising pending sales and improving affordability index suggest buyers may be quietly stepping back in the market, and that the market could be finding a bottom. Prices Continue to Retreat The most striking headline is the significant price correction underway, particularly in the condominium segment. The median condo sales price fell 21.7 year-over-year to $597,000 in May, continuing a sustained downward trend that has persisted across nearly every month of the past year.  Single-family homes also saw a 9 decline in median price to $1,174,500. On a year-to-date basis, the combined median across all properties sits at $980,000, down 10.8 from the same period in 2025. Average sales prices tell an even sharper story: condo averages dropped 18.3, and single-family averages fell 3.7 year-over-year. For buyers who were priced out during Maui's peak years, this correction represents a meaningful shift in accessibility. What I'm Seeing in the Maui Market I’ve personally had a busy summer with 6 closings in the last two months, representing 3 buyers and 3 sellers. I’ve noticed more buyers reaching out to me lately, but they are also very savvy and comp-sensitive as we navigate the market.  There are plenty of deals to be made as a buyer, and to make good ones, we need a little patience and a solid strategy, as some sellers can still be attached to their idea of price. As a seller, it's critical to get the pricing right the first time and avoid repeated price drops to find a buyer. Patience is also a virtue as a seller, as finding the buyer willing to pay your price can take a little time; however, I have gotten several listings under contract for sellers in less than 30 days this year. It’s all about presentation, price, and position Maui’s Mayoral Race Will Impact the Real Estate Market I’m writing this report a day before I’m supposed to meet Mayor Richard Bissen, whom I have written much of in previous reports. I was involved in a sale where the buyers used a $600,000 grant from the county’s Ho’okumu Hou first-time homebuyer program. The buyers are a younger couple with two children who lost their home in Lahaina to the fires. I represented the sellers in this transaction, and they were understanding enough to work with some of the nuances of the program. Ultimately, the deal closed smoothly, and it's definitely a feel-good story to be sure. The Mayor is coming to congratulate the buyers and for a photo shoot to help his reelection campaign. It’s no secret that Mayor Bissen’s Bill 9 proposal has done more harm to homeowner equity on Maui than any single other event since the global recession of 2009, and that's not hyperbole. It’s also no secret that his response to the Lahaina fire has been met with a lot of justifiable criticism. In the last year or so, he has been behind some positive developments, particularly around water security in West Maui, through expanding the current water infrastructure.  Recently, he has shown support for Bill 88, which is a compromise on Bill  9, but I'm sure his base is not happy about this.  Bissen’s legacy of Bill 9 and its impact on the community over the last few years will ultimately mean he won’t get my vote. That’s not to say he hasn’t done some good things, though.  As for me, I will be voting for Yuki Lei Sugimura as she has been an opponent of Bill 9 from the beginning, from her position on the County Council, and seems to have the broader Maui community’s best interests in mind, rather than just a subsection of the community.  We can expand the economy, support a higher level of sustainable tourism, while protecting the environment, and increasing access to affordable housing for locals. It’s all possible simultaneously when a balanced plan is in place. To rebuild Lahaina and improve affordable housing, we need less red tape and more hammers and nails.  Buyer Interest Is Picking Up on Maui Despite falling prices, there are early signals of renewed buyer engagement. Pending sales, which is a leading indicator of future closings,  rose 31.6 for condominiums in May compared to a year ago, and increased 13.2 across all property types combined.  Year-to-date pending sales are up 7.6 overall, suggesting demand is not disappearing but rather recalibrating to new price levels. The Housing Affordability Index reinforced this, jumping 32.1 for condos and 12.9 for single family homes in May, reflecting that lower prices and modest income adjustments are making ownership more achievable for local buyers relative to prior years, although the index remains very low in absolute terms (35 for single family, 70 for condos), underscoring that Maui homeownership remains a significant financial stretch for most residents. The Challenges of Being a Seller in The Maui Market Lately Many sellers have found it hard to sell over the last year, as we are also seeing more canceled and expired listings that can sit on the market for months without more than a few showings if not priced correctly. While 2025 was one of the worst statistically for the Maui market since 2009, 2026 is already off to a better start and could still show further improvement.  Selling your Maui home or condo in this market is a nuanced undertaking that requires a thoughtful assessment of the data to make an informed decision on price and positioning. Buyers are looking for exceptional properties; they are shying away from doing work or remodeling and are extremely sensitive to the comparable sales. Buyers want deals, and lately, they have been finding them as the market has corrected.  Key Factors Affecting Maui Real Estate in 2026 Bill 9 Lawsuit Results, Bill 88, Short-Term Rental Rules, and TIG Exemption List Progress (As of June 2026, we are still waiting for the county to push through the new hotel zoning classes, and most signs indicate they will.) Lawsuits against Bill 9 have begun, but nothing more to report at the moment.  Recovering Tourism Industry Investments and building in Lahaina and Water Infrastructure, along with the long-awaited 4 Billion Dollar settlement payout Where will interest rates go?