Log in Sign up
Trending
West Nile virus claims over 200 European victims is trending now UK initiative promotes homeopathy-research collaboration is trending now Niger records 124 diphtheria cases, 17 deaths — Commissioner is trending now Adamawa mounts CERF-funded anti-cholera preparatory capacity building is trending now Chemists set electrons free and break a decades-old chemistry barrier is trending now ‘Panda of the insect world’: the moscardón bumblebee creates buzz for invertebrate of the… is trending now 60,000-year-old ostrich eggshell engravings reveal a surprisingly sophisticated human mind is trending now Total solar eclipse Aug. 12, 2026 live updates — 3 days to totality is trending now Mbeumo to the rescue but Mount injured again! Man Utd draw with PSG as Tielemans makes de… is trending now Morocco, Algeria reach WAFCON semifinals and qualify for FIFA World Cup is trending now Michael Carrick provides Mason Mount injury update after midfielder limps out of PSG frie… is trending now Annie Idibia follows 2Baba again on Instagram, his reaction gets people talking is trending now West Nile virus claims over 200 European victims is trending now UK initiative promotes homeopathy-research collaboration is trending now Niger records 124 diphtheria cases, 17 deaths — Commissioner is trending now Adamawa mounts CERF-funded anti-cholera preparatory capacity building is trending now Chemists set electrons free and break a decades-old chemistry barrier is trending now ‘Panda of the insect world’: the moscardón bumblebee creates buzz for invertebrate of the… is trending now 60,000-year-old ostrich eggshell engravings reveal a surprisingly sophisticated human mind is trending now Total solar eclipse Aug. 12, 2026 live updates — 3 days to totality is trending now Mbeumo to the rescue but Mount injured again! Man Utd draw with PSG as Tielemans makes de… is trending now Morocco, Algeria reach WAFCON semifinals and qualify for FIFA World Cup is trending now Michael Carrick provides Mason Mount injury update after midfielder limps out of PSG frie… is trending now Annie Idibia follows 2Baba again on Instagram, his reaction gets people talking is trending now
Politics

By-election betting

PoliticalBetting · · 143 views
By-election betting

With Mike Amesbury being sentenced today (and him appealing) the recall process will be slightly paused, I suspect we will see a by election at some point this year. Ladbrokes have a market on a potential by election. I still think Labour has a chance of holding the seat but I understand why people will want to back Reform. TSE

The dynamics of the now inevitable by-election: low turn out, national government unpopular, disgraced former MP and Reform already 2nd mean – despite the big Labour majority – Reform i think would be disappointed not to win given their current polling and becomes a test for them too.

— Luke Tryl (@luketryl.bsky.social) 2025-02-24T12:48:39.827Z

Will test a few things for them. 1. Can they mount a GOTV as good as Labour on a low turnout and turn poll shares into votes 2. Can they cannibalise remaining Tory vote in seats they are 2nd to Labour 3. How many votes can they take direct from Labour

— Luke Tryl (@luketryl.bsky.social) 2025-02-24T12:49:13.154Z

A few people saying, fairly, nowcasts don't show Reform winning it, but you'd have good reason to expect in a challenger party in a by-election a bigger swing than simply what national averages imply – e.g. Lib Dems have regularly taken down bigger majorities in by-elections (from lab and con)

— Luke Tryl (@luketryl.bsky.social) 2025-02-24T14:24:19.542Z

With Mike Amesbury being sentenced today (and him appealing) the recall process will be slightly paused, I suspect we will see a by election at some point this year. Ladbrokes have a market on a potential by election.

I still think Labour has a chance of holding the seat but I understand why people will want to back Reform.

TSE

View original source →

Related

More from PoliticalBetting