Iran right now is hell. To keep our hopes up, let’s try to focus on the good things that might come if the regime does fall. For it might very well fall. Trump is honour bound to do his best to bring it down. The darkest hour is just before dawn.The fall of the Islamist regime could usher in an era of peace across the Middle East. Iran has been subsidizing insurrectionist groups like the Houthis, Hamas, Hezbollah, and more. Without this support, they may evaporate. I think of the effect on the troubles in Northern Ireland when Libya’s Ghaddafi withdrew support. The Abraham Accords show a desire to bury that hatchet in some important quarters. Iran might become an ally of Israel again, as it was under the Shah— the Iranians might well be grateful for Israel’s help in overthrowing the Islamist regime. And they could flip from being a sworn enemy of the US to being a strategic regional ally—in Russia’s underbelly.Russia will have lost a major ally and supplier of weapons for the current war in Ukraine. That might tip the balance.The example of regime overthrow might also inspire Russians to overthrow Putin as well. Or the Chinese might try to take out Xi.Along with Venezuela, and domestic supplies, Iran will give the US strong influence in the world oil market. They might be able to use this to exert pressure on China.Iran might now develop into a prosperous and innovative nation. Under the Shah, they were on a par with Spain. There is a well-educated population, and history gives us many examples of nations that developed quickly after a period of turmoil; the Netherlands gaining independence from Spain, Spain of the Reconquista, Poland after the Berlin Wall fell. Postwar Germany or Japan. Iran’s expertise with drones shows a bit of what they are capable of.Rumours are that a large proportion of Iranians are secret Christians. This seems plausible. Iran was not that devout before 1979—there was a move under the Shah to promote Zoroastrianism over Islam. The rule of the mullahs might now have broadly discredited Islam in the popular mind. It would be a glorious thing, from my Christian perspective, to see the revival this might become, once the lid is off, perhaps inspiring revivals elsewhere.It seems likely that the fall of the Islamic Republic will largely discredit the modern ideology of political Islam and global jihad everywhere. The experiment has been tried; it failed. Keep on hoping.'Od's Blog: Catholic comments on the passing parade.
Iran right now is hell. To keep our hopes up, let’s try to focus on the good things that might come if the regime does fall. For it might very well fall. Trump is honour bound to do his best to bring it down. The darkest hour is just before dawn.
The fall of the Islamist regime could usher in an era of peace across the Middle East. Iran has been subsidizing insurrectionist groups like the Houthis, Hamas, Hezbollah, and more. Without this support, they may evaporate. I think of the effect on the troubles in Northern Ireland when Libya’s Ghaddafi withdrew support. The Abraham Accords show a desire to bury that hatchet in some important quarters.
Iran might become an ally of Israel again, as it was under the Shah— the Iranians might well be grateful for Israel’s help in overthrowing the Islamist regime. And they could flip from being a sworn enemy of the US to being a strategic regional ally—in Russia’s underbelly.
Russia will have lost a major ally and supplier of weapons for the current war in Ukraine. That might tip the balance.
The example of regime overthrow might also inspire Russians to overthrow Putin as well. Or the Chinese might try to take out Xi.
Along with Venezuela, and domestic supplies, Iran will give the US strong influence in the world oil market. They might be able to use this to exert pressure on China.
Iran might now develop into a prosperous and innovative nation. Under the Shah, they were on a par with Spain. There is a well-educated population, and history gives us many examples of nations that developed quickly after a period of turmoil; the Netherlands gaining independence from Spain, Spain of the Reconquista, Poland after the Berlin Wall fell. Postwar Germany or Japan. Iran’s expertise with drones shows a bit of what they are capable of.
Rumours are that a large proportion of Iranians are secret Christians. This seems plausible. Iran was not that devout before 1979—there was a move under the Shah to promote Zoroastrianism over Islam. The rule of the mullahs might now have broadly discredited Islam in the popular mind. It would be a glorious thing, from my Christian perspective, to see the revival this might become, once the lid is off, perhaps inspiring revivals elsewhere.
It seems likely that the fall of the Islamic Republic will largely discredit the modern ideology of political Islam and global jihad everywhere. The experiment has been tried; it failed.
Keep on hoping.
