Two parties will have been disappointed by the two by elections on Friday. One, Fianna Fáil, lost its deposit in a constituency that regularly saw Bertie Ahern power two party colleagues across the line. The other, Sinn Féin gathered more votes but is finding that good fortune in southern politics often swings on transfers rather than first preferences (the source of their dominance in Northern Ireland).
Transfer patterns from those by-elections tell a similar story:  votes flowed freely between Labour, the Greens and the Social Democrats, while Sinn Féin remained largely outside that loop. Interestingly these clear voting patterns have prompted the leaders of both Labour and the Social Democrats to reconsider their electoral strategies ahead of the next general election, effectively untangling themselves from a Panglossian “alternative government in waiting†with Mary Lou McDonald’s party as lead partner.
Labour’s Ivana Bacik wants her party to form a bloc with the Greens and Social Democrats before entering any coalition talks, something that would dilute Sinn Féin’s negotiating power. People Before Profit’s Paul Murphy accused Sinn Féin of drifting rightward, saying its recent positions had put off left-wing voters.
The Social Democrats were particularly pointed, criticising Sinn Féin’s abstention on their abortion reform Bill as “a huge mistake†that damaged the party with women voters. They also flagged concerns over its stance on migration, climate, taxation and animal welfare.
In Dublin Central, notably, the Sinn Féin candidate Janice Boylan drew significant transfers from convicted criminal Gerry Hutch, whilst in Galway West, despite a formal vote-left pact that included Sinn Féin, its candidate was eliminated early before transfers from the Social Democrats and Labour could even come into play.
Notice how none of these issues relate to Northern Ireland which (currently) is very low on the priority list of most southern voters. The problem is something more fundamental: an unresolved tension between the call towards nationalist populism, a lane now crowded with independents who do it more authentically, and a credible left politics that has yet to land with the people who actually need it most.
Academics have noticed. Other parties have noticed. Voters, as yet, remain unconvinced. Until that question of conflicted identity is genuinely settled, the numbers will keep coming up short. On the up side, this could be a threshold moment for the party. The question is whether it has the nerve to become a party of action (rather the role of chief armchair critic of the government that it’s become comfortable with) or retreats, as it has many times before, back into itself.
