A Solomonic Decision

A dramatic dénouement to the long-running Marine Le Pen saga. the appellate court confirmed the verdict of guilty on the charge of misappropriation of EU funds, sentenced her to 3 years in prison (with 2 suspended and the other limited to wearing an electronic ankle bracelet), but reduced her “ineligibility” penalty in such a way that she will be able to run for president in 2027. Solomon could have done no better: the rule of law was affirmed but at the same time the court refrained from placing its thumb on the democratic process at a time when the RN, like it or not, is leading the polls. So in all likelihood, Le Pen will be the candidate of the RN and Bardella will have to bide his time.

Whether this is good or bad news for the RN will remain forever an imponderable. Polls currently show Bardella doing slightly better than Le Pen, but he has never been tested in a presidential race; Le Pen, by contrast, has been tested and found wanting. But at this point it certainly appears that one or the other of them is the candidate to beat, and if Le Pen chooses to run, Bardella is hardly in a positiion to prevent her, having often declared his support. So the die is now cast.

To be sure, la candidate, if she decides to run, will be shackled to her ankle bracelet during the campaign and, if elected, in the Élysée. A bizarre situation, no doubt, but then we have become accustomed to bizarre developments in the highest places.