Share of Search predicts market share before sales data confirms it. But most teams track it like a vanity metric and miss the real patterns. Marketing teams love metrics that sound important. Brand awareness. Engagement rate. Impressions. Share of voice. All numbers that look good in a deck but rarely connect to revenue. Then there’s … Read More "Share of Search: The Market Signal Everyone’s Measuring Wrong"
Share of Search predicts market share before sales data confirms it. But most teams track it like a vanity metric and miss the real patterns.
Marketing teams love metrics that sound important.
Brand awareness. Engagement rate. Impressions. Share of voice. All numbers that look good in a deck but rarely connect to revenue.
Then there’s Share of Search.
It’s different. Not because it measures something new, but because it predicts something old: market share.
The correlation is consistent. Brands with higher Share of Search tend to gain market share. Brands with a declining Share of Search tend to lose it. The search data leads. The sales data follows.
This isn’t theory. Multiple studies across multiple industries confirm the pattern. Share of Search moves before market share does. Sometimes for months.
But here’s the problem: most teams track Share of Search like it’s a popularity contest. They measure their brand name against competitors. They celebrate when the line goes up. They panic when it goes down. Then they do nothing with the insight.
That’s not how this works.
Share of Search isn’t a scoreboard. It’s a leading indicator of buyer intention, market momentum, and competitive position. But only if you know what you’re actually measuring.
What is Share of Search?
Share of Search measures how often people search for your brand compared to your competitors.
The formula is simple: your brand’s search volume divided by total category search volume.
If 1,000 people search for project management software this month, and 200 of them search for your brand specifically, your Share of Search is 20%.
That’s it. No complex attribution. No weighted scoring. Just search volume as a proxy for brand consideration.
The insight comes from tracking this over time. Not the absolute number, but the direction. Are you gaining Share of Search or losing it? Are competitors accelerating while you stagnate? Are new entrants stealing volume you didn’t know was at risk?
These movements predict market shifts before they show up in your pipeline.
Why Share of Search Predicts Market Share
Here’s the logic.
People search for brands they’re considering. Not browsing. Not researching the category. They’ve moved past “what are my options” to “tell me more about this specific option.”
That’s purchase intent.
When your Share of Search increases, more people are considering you. When it decreases, fewer are. The consideration set drives the purchase decision. The purchase decision drives market share.
The timeline matters. Search happens before purchase. Sometimes immediately before. Sometimes months before, especially in B2B where sales cycles are long.
This creates a window. You can see momentum building or eroding before it impacts revenue. You can’t change what already happened in sales. But you can respond to what’s happening in search.
That’s the advantage. Early warning.
Les Binet and Peter Field studied this across consumer categories. The correlation between Share of Search and market share was consistent. Not perfect, but strong enough to be predictive. James Hankins replicated it in B2B. Same pattern.
Brands that grow Share of Search tend to grow market share. Brands that lose Share of Search tend to lose market share. The exceptions are rare and usually explainable by external factors like supply constraints or major product failures.
For most companies, the correlation holds.
The Mistakes Teams Make With Share of Search
Now let’s talk about what goes wrong.
Mistake one: Measuring only branded search.
Most teams track searches for their brand name. That’s it. They compare it to competitor brand names. They calculate Share of Search. They move on.
This misses half the picture.
People don’t just search for brand names. They search for problems. They search for solutions. They search for alternatives. They search for comparisons.
“Best CRM for small business” is a search. “Salesforce vs HubSpot” is a search. “How to manage customer data” is a search.
These searches reveal consideration before brand preference forms. Track only branded searches? You’re seeing the end of the buyer journey. You’re missing the beginning where market share shifts actually start.
Mistake two: Ignoring category trends.
Your Share of Search increased 10% this quarter. Good news?
Maybe. Unless total category search volume dropped 30%.
You gained share of a shrinking pie. That’s not momentum. That’s market contraction. Your absolute search volume probably declined even as your relative share increased.
You need both numbers. Share of Search and total category volume. One without the other is incomplete.
Mistake three: Treating it as a brand metric.
Share of Search gets lumped into brand tracking. CMOs report it alongside awareness and consideration surveys. It lives in the brand team’s dashboard.
Wrong category.
Share of Search is a market intelligence metric. It tells you about competitive dynamics, category growth, and buyer behavior shifts. Brand teams should care about it. But so should product, sales, and strategy teams.
When Share of Search moves, the entire organization needs to know why and what it means for their function.
Mistake four: Not investigating the causes.
Your Share of Search dropped 5% last month. Now what?
Most teams shrug and keep moving. They assume it’s noise. Random fluctuation. Nothing to worry about.
But Share of Search doesn’t move randomly. Something changed. A competitor launched a campaign. You had a PR crisis. A new entrant appeared. Your product had issues. Industry trends shifted.
The metric is the signal. The investigation is the work. Without the second part, the first part is useless.
How to Actually Use Share of Search
So what does good Share of Search tracking look like?
Track the full search landscape.
Don’t just measure your brand name vs competitor brand names. Track category searches like “project management software.” Track problem-based searches like “how to track team tasks.” Track solution searches like “kanban board tools.” Track comparison searches like “Asana vs Monday.” Track alternative searches like “best alternative to Trello.”
Map these to buyer journey stages. Category and problem searches signal early consideration. Brand and comparison searches signal late-stage evaluation.
You want visibility across the entire journey, not just the final step.
Segment by geography and vertical.
Your overall Share of Search might be stable. But what about by region? By industry?
You might be growing share in healthcare while losing it in fintech. You might be strong in North America but invisible in EMEA. These patterns matter.
Segmented Share of Search reveals where your brand is strong and where it’s weak. It shows you where to invest and where to defend.
Correlate with pipeline and revenue.
Share of Search predicts market share. But the lag varies by industry and product complexity.
In consumer categories, the lag might be weeks. In enterprise B2B, it might be quarters.
You need to know your lag. Track Share of Search alongside pipeline generation and closed revenue. Look for the correlation. How many months does Share of Search lead pipeline? How strong is the relationship?
Once you know the pattern, you can use Share of Search as a forward-looking metric. A drop today predicts a pipeline problem in X months. An increase today predicts revenue growth in Y months.
That turns Share of Search from a tracking metric into a planning metric.
Monitor competitor movements.
Your Share of Search matters. But so does everyone else’s.
You hold steady at 25% while a competitor jumps from 15% to 30%? You didn’t maintain position. You lost relative standing.
Track the full competitive set. Who’s gaining? Who’s losing? Are new players appearing? Are established players fading?
These shifts reveal market dynamics that impact your business whether you’re directly involved or not.
Share of Search and Brand Building
Here’s where this connects to brand strategy.
Brand building activities don’t show immediate ROI. You run a campaign. You get awareness and consideration. But sales don’t spike the next week.
This frustrates CFOs. They see spend without return. They question the investment.
Share of Search provides the missing link.
Brand campaigns should move Share of Search. Maybe not immediately, but directionally over time. You’re investing in brand and Share of Search stays flat? Something’s wrong. Either the campaign isn’t working or you’re targeting the wrong audience.
Share of Search increases? You have leading evidence that brand investment is working. You can’t claim revenue impact yet. But you can show market momentum. That bridges the gap between spend and results.
This changes the brand budget conversation. You’re not asking for faith. You’re showing measurable movement in a metric that predicts revenue.
Share of Search in Competitive Analysis
Let’s talk about competitive intelligence.
Most competitive analysis is backward-looking. You track what competitors launched. You analyze their pricing. You reverse-engineer their features.
All useful. All late.
By the time you see a competitor’s product launch, they’ve already done the work. You’re reacting to decisions they made months ago.
Share of Search shows you competitive momentum in real time.
A competitor’s Share of Search suddenly spikes? They did something. Maybe they launched a campaign. Maybe they got press coverage. Maybe they released a viral feature. You don’t know yet, but the signal is there.
Now you can investigate. What changed? Why are more people searching for them? Is this temporary or sustained? Does it threaten your position?
You’re not reacting to their launch announcement. You’re detecting the market impact as it happens.
The inverse matters too. A competitor’s Share of Search declines? They’re in trouble. Maybe they had a product failure. Maybe their campaign flopped. Maybe their leadership team imploded.
You can’t see this in their marketing messages. They’re not going to announce weakness. But the search data reveals it.
This is strategic intelligence. Use it.
The Limits of Share of Search
Now the caveats.
Share of Search is predictive, not deterministic. It tells you what’s likely, not what’s certain.
A brand can have high Share of Search and low market share if they’re all consideration, no conversion. People search, evaluate, then buy someone else.
This happens when brand awareness exceeds product-market fit. You’re famous but not compelling. People know your name. They just don’t choose you.
Share of Search also doesn’t capture non-search behaviors. Direct traffic. Word of mouth. Sales-driven deals. Your GTM motion doesn’t rely on search? Share of Search won’t reflect your full market position.
And there’s the category definition problem. What searches belong in your category? Define it too narrowly, you miss adjacent competition. Too broadly, you dilute the signal.
These aren’t reasons to ignore Share of Search. They’re reasons to use it correctly. As one input among many, not as the only truth.
Share of Search and Market Entry
Here’s where Share of Search gets really interesting: new market entry.
You’re launching in a new geography or a new vertical. You have no historical data. You don’t know if your brand resonates. You don’t know who the real competitors are.
Share of Search gives you a baseline immediately.
Track category searches in the new market. Who are people searching for? What’s the competitive distribution? Is it concentrated among a few players or fragmented across many?
This tells you market structure before you spend a dollar.
Then track your own Share of Search as you ramp. Are you gaining? How fast? How does your trajectory compare to the category leaders when they entered?
You’re measuring market penetration in real time. You can see if your entry strategy is working months before revenue data confirms it.
Building a Share of Search Dashboard
What does this look like in practice?
You need a dashboard that tracks overall category volume. Is the market growing or shrinking? Track your Share of Search. Are you gaining or losing? Track competitor Share of Search. Who’s moving? Add segmented views by geography, vertical, buyer journey stage. Show trend lines from the last 12 to 24 months, not just this month. Include correlation analysis. How does Share of Search relate to your pipeline and revenue?
Update this monthly. Review it quarterly with leadership. Investigate any significant movements.
This isn’t a set-it-and-forget-it metric. It requires active interpretation. The numbers tell you what happened. You have to figure out why and what to do about it.
End.
Share of Search is not a vanity metric. It’s not a brand awareness proxy. It’s a leading indicator of market position that moves before your revenue does.
But only if you use it correctly.
Most teams track their brand name, compare it to competitors, and call it a day. They miss the category trends. They ignore the buyer journey context. They don’t investigate the causes. They don’t connect it to business outcomes.
That’s wasted potential.
The teams that win with Share of Search treat it as market intelligence. They track the full search landscape. They segment by geography and vertical. They correlate it with pipeline and revenue. They monitor competitor movements. They investigate changes.
They use it the way it’s meant to be used: as an early warning system for market shifts.
Your competitors are probably tracking Share of Search wrong. That’s your advantage.
Start tracking it right.
