Orange County Housing Report: Early Trends
February 2026
At the start of every year, the housing market can feel a bit disoriented after the holidays. By the end of January, however, the data begins to settle and clearer trends emerge. As we move into February 2026, those early signals are already giving us insight into where the Orange County housing market may be headed.
Here’s what we’re seeing so far.
New Listings: Still Limited
New listings remain lower than many expected. While more homeowners are gradually returning to the market compared to the lows of 2023, many are still “locked in” to low fixed-rate mortgages and hesitant to move. January saw only a modest increase in new listings year over year, keeping overall supply well below pre-pandemic norms.
Bottom line: Seller participation is improving, but inventory remains constrained.
Inventory: Growing Slowly
Inventory has increased, but at a much more controlled pace than last year. Unlike early 2025, when listings surged, 2026 is starting with steady, methodical growth. While buyers have more choices than they did a year ago, the market is far from oversupplied.
Bottom line: Inventory is rising, but still well below historical averages.
Buyer Demand: Starting to Pick Up
Buyer demand has underperformed in Orange County compared to other Southern California markets, but that may be changing. Mortgage rates are meaningfully lower than this time last year and have remained lower for longer. As a result, pending sales have begun to rise, which is typical as we move deeper into the Winter and Spring markets.
Bottom line: Improved affordability is beginning to translate into stronger buyer activity.
Market Speed: Improving Quickly
As demand increases faster than supply, market speed is improving. Expected Market Time has dropped sharply over the past few weeks, signaling a faster-moving market. While competition can still feel intense, homes are selling more quickly than they were just weeks ago.
Bottom line: If demand continues to improve, negotiating power could begin shifting toward sellers.
Luxury Market: Gaining Momentum
The luxury segment has shown noticeable improvement. While inventory has inched up slightly, demand has risen faster, leading to shorter market times across multiple luxury price tiers. Momentum is building as we head toward the Spring market.
Bottom line: Luxury buyers are becoming more active, and conditions are improving for high-end sellers.
The Big Picture
Now that the post-holiday reset is behind us, early 2026 trends point to a strengthening Orange County housing market. Inventory is growing slowly, demand is improving, and market speed is accelerating. If mortgage rates remain favorable, competition is likely to increase as we move further into the year.
