The Socialists have announced that they will file a censure motion against Prime Minister Bayrou. This was a demise foretold months ago when Bayrou first proposed the idea of a […]
The Socialists have announced that they will file a censure motion against Prime Minister Bayrou. This was a demise foretold months ago when Bayrou first proposed the idea of a “conclave” to resolve the pension crisis. Because the legislature was permanently deadlocked, Bayrou felt he had no choice but to offload the problem onto the unions and employers. The ensuing negotiations were given the name “conclave,” perhaps in the hope of divine intervention. This was not forthcoming. Hence the move toward censure.
Bayrou has accomplished nothing while in office and will leave no mark upon exiting, but the country will once again be plunged into a leadership crisis nearly a year after the initial crisis precipitated by Macron’s ill-advised decision to dissolve parliament. The selection of a new prime minister will be stymied by the same impasses that led to the appointments first of Barnier and then Bayrou. All that has changed is that Marine Le Pen is now ineligible to run for the presidency should the coming leadership crisis lead to an early presidential election, which is unlikely. But Macron is now faced with the problem of choosing a prime minister who can survive a vote of confidence, which will not be easy, as the next presidential contest has already begun.
Meanwhile, a propos that very contest, Dominique de Villepin has thrown his hat into the ring. A year ago I would have said that he had no chance, but with all the realignment that’s been going on within the various camps and subcamps, who knows? His verve and rhetorical vigor might well propel him ahead of the relatively colorless Édouard Philippe in the center-right part of the spectrum. If nothing else, his presence will certainly make the race more interesting.
