It’s long been claimed that non-criminal illegal aliens in America who work hard and pay taxes deserve some form of …Continue reading →
It’s long been claimed that non-criminal illegal aliens in America who work hard and pay taxes deserve some form of amnesty instead of deportation. Former President Biden was one; here and here are some other examples. And since the recent deportation-related violence in Minnesota, these arguments have multiplied. (See, e.g., here.)
Here’s one big problem. Despite the suggestions here that illegal residence in the United States is usually a victim-less crime, that’s not to say that there are no victims. In fact, there are tens of millions: the legal resident workers, citizen and non-citizen alike, whose wages have been suppressed by the massive influx of illegal competitors in recent decades.
As RealityChek regulars know, I recently examined this issue and based on several sets of official U.S. wage data, concluded that such wage suppression hadn’t appeared. Yet at the suggestion of immigration restrictionist Mickey Kaus, I took a more focused look. And the results were strikingly different.
Previously, I sought the answer by comparing (pre-Trump 2.0 deportation) 2024 and 2025 wage trends by looking at the very broadest worker categories tracked by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (all non-farm employees, and production and nonsupervisory – more or less blue-collar – employees). But following Kaus’ suggestion, this week, I looked at the trends for blue collar workers in categories that have been illegal alien-heavy.
They numbered 23, based mainly on this analysis from the Center for Migration Studies – which is pretty supportive of boosting immigration and seeks to safeguard “the dignity and rights of migrants, refugees, and newcomers.”
And in fully 16, real hourly wages were stronger in 2025 than in pre-deportation 2024 – including six in which this measure of pay fell in absolute terms in 2024 and rebounded into the black in 2025. In six other sectors, the pre-deportation 2024 results were better, and in one industry – janitorial services – they were the same.
Here are the exact numbers for 19 industries where the data begin in February (the first full month of Trump 2.0) and are only available through last November. (Apologies for some poor formatting. I’m pretty challenged in that regard.)
Feb.-Nov. 2024 Feb.-Nov. 25
Grocery & convenience -0.17 percent +1.05 percent
stores
Truck transportation +1.04 percent +1.54 percent
General freight trucking +0.93 percent +1.93 percent
Janitorial services 0.00 percent 0.00 percent
Landscaping services +1.42 percent +2.41 percent
Waste collection +1.08 percent +1.39 percent
Disability, mental health +1.67 percent +0.95 percent
& substance abuse facilities
Elder care facilities +1.71 percent +0.42 percent
Retirement communities 0.14 percent +2.10 percent
Child care services +0.65 percent -0.16 percent
Repair & maintenance +2.72 percent +0.88 percent
Car washes +2.92 percent +2.01 percent
Personal & laundry +3.99 percent +3.05 percent
services
Hair, nail and skin care +3.60 percent +0.37 percent
services
Parking lots & garages +1.28 percent +7.93 percent
Leisure & hospitality -0.81 percent +1.13 percent
Accommodation -1.18 percent +1.64 percent
Non-casino hotels & motels -1.62 percent +1.79 percent
Food services & drinking +1.00 percent +1.80 percent
places
For the broader sectors below, which encompass some of the categories above, data are available for the February-through-December period. And they show more of the same.
Construction +1.65 percent +1.71 percent
Retail -0.15 percent +1.32 percent
Manufacturing +1.56 percent +0.98 percent
Transportation & -0.53 percent +1.69 percent
warehousing
These findings, of course, conform entirely with the uncontroversial idea that, all else equal, when the supply of anything (including people) grows faster than the demand, the price of that thing tends to fall.
The above figures don’t mean that nothing about the Trump deportation policies can be legitimately criticized. But they certainly make clear that exempting non-criminal illegal aliens from immigration crackdowns will be doing a major injustice to a huge number of legally resident Americans.
