It’s Always Darkest before the Dawn

Can it get any worse for the Socialist Party? It can always get worse, of course, but the mass defection of the entire faction led by Boris Vallaud may well constitute a fatal blow to the dying Elephant, which has been wobbly on its legs for some time now. Vallaud came third in the last contest for the party leadership, and only his withdrawal in favor of Olivier Faure (over Rouen mayor Nicolas-Mayer Rossignol) allowed Faure to retain his tenuous hold on the leadership. Now Vallaud has departed and taken his marbles with him, leaving Faure in worse position even than the “captain of a pédalo” whose sinking a decade ago allowed Faure to rise from the depths.

The non-Mélenchon left was already in parlous straits even before Vallaud jumped ship. There are more aspiring left-wing candidates, it often seems, than there are voters willing to vote for them. The LFI renegades Ruffin and Autain have tested the waters. Glucksmann’s lonely quest continues as the candidate searches for a strategy that might make him as appealing to voters as he is to many media commentators. The “Hollande wing” of the left, which until recently consisted of Holland and Cazeneuve, may not survive the renascence of Hollande’s ill-founded belief that he can make a comeback, whereas Cazeneuve had persuaded himself that his time had finally come. In the nebula surrounding a handful of non-aligned leftists, the name of Lucie Castets keeps recurring, although most people have probably forgotten that she was plucked from obscurity in the hope that Macron might be forced to choose someone from the broad left, independent of Mëlenchon yet still acceptable to him, in the wake of the dissolution and the surprise (and illusory) success of the short-lived New Popular Front.

All of this maneuvering and positioning reeks of desperation. Mélenchon may never become president, but his campaign to destroy the PS appears at last to have achieved its goal.

Meanwhile, the RN faces a new hiccup on its way to the big prize. Jordan Bardella is under investigation by EU prosecutors for fraud. The allegation is that he used EU funds to pay for media training. It’s easy to understand why the RN is protesting at judicial interference in the electoral process. Marine Le Pen may soon be barred from running, and if Bardella were to be sidelined, the party many believe is destined to win the next election could find itself without a candidate. This probably won’t happen, at least not before the election in 2027, but one does have to wonder what discussions led to these charges at this point in time.

Although the center right is almost as fragmented as the center left, Édouard Philippe seems to be emerging as the most likely candidate. He and Gabriel Attal appear to have reached some kind of mutual understanding. Bruno Retailleau has outmaneuvered Laurent Wauquiez to win the loyalty of the LR rump, but Retailleau is too close to the RN for many centrist voters. Xavier Bertrand seems to be going nowhere, while David Lisnard’s Herculean efforts have yet to yield tangible fruit.