(What’s Left of) Our Economy: New Fed Data Show U.S. Manufacturing Riding a Near Two-Decade-Best Win Streak

U.S. after-inflation manufacturing output in July rose sequentially for the seventh straight month, according to Federal Reserve figures that came out this morning.  That’s domestic industry’s longest such streak since a nine-month span from October, 2006 through July, 2007.

In addition, the new data show that U.S.-based manufacturing’s expansion during the tariff-heavy second Trump administration has outstripped that during the final, comparable period of the pre-tariff Biden administration – and by a widening margin.

Inflation adjusted output of Made in the USA products advanced by 0.16 percent on month in July.  Such production has now climbed every month since last December.  

Revisions, moreover, were positive.  June’s constant dollar production increase was upgraded from a fractional advance to one of 0.30 percent.  May’s price-adjusted growth – initially reported at 0.05 percent and then revised up to 0.10 percent was downgraded back to a 0.05 percent improvement.  And after having been upgraded from an initially reported 0.62 percent growth to 0.74 percent as of last month’s Fed release, April’s increase was revised back down to 0.68 percent.

As a result, during the Trump administration’s first 17 data months, (beginning with February, 2025, the president’s first full month back in office), constant dollar American manufacturing is up by 2.15 percent adjusted for inflation.  During the final 17 months of the Biden administration, it sank by 1.65 percent.

And since this Trump-Biden comparison was plus 1.80 percent versus minus 1.58 percent, the Trump edge widened.

Here’s how the Trump rebound looks visually:

Post-”Liberation Day” numbers tell a similar story.  Since President Trump announced his first big wave of tariffs in April, 2025, U.S.-based manufacturing output has increased by 1.83 percent.  During the final 15 months of the Biden administration, it decreased by 1.24 percent.

And since this Trump-Biden comparison was plus 1.41 percent versus minus 1.52 percent, the Trump 2.0 edge has widened here, too.

The biggest July monthly manufacturing output winners of the broadest industry subsectors tracked by the Fed were:

>wood product manufacturing, where real production jumped by 2.36 percent – its best such performance since December, 2021’s three percent.  Moreover, last month’s initially reported 0.80 percent drop – the biggest since January’s 0.90 percent – was revised up to fall off of 0.37 percent;

>heavily subsidized computer and electronic product manufacturing firms, whose 1.86 percent improvement brought its real output to its seventh consecutive all-time high;

>the heavily tariffed primary metal manufacturing, where the output gain of 1.44 percent was its biggest since March’s 4.96 percent burst.  But June’s initially reported 0.20 percent increase was revised way down to a decrease of 1.89 percent; and   

>the big aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment complex, where July’s 1.42 percent monthly advance was its sixth straight and its biggest since April’s 2.17 percent.   

The biggest July monthly manufacturing output losers of the broadest industry subsectors tracked by the Fed were: 

>the very small printing and related support activities cluster, whose 2.48 percent production plunge was its third straight retreat and its worst such performance since June, 2023’s 3.84 percent slide.  To add insult to injury, June’s initially reported 0.39 percent monthly output improvement is now estimated to have been a decline of 0.22 percent;

>the very big and heavily tariffed automotive industry, which cut inflation-adjusted production for the first time since March, and where the 2.14 percent slump was the worst monthly performance in this volatile complex since the 6.18 percent plunge in January, 2025;

>the very small and import-battered apparel and leather goods industries, where a 1.86 percent constant dollar production slump was its worst monthly result since April, 2025’s 4.41 percent nosedive.  More encouragingly, the July results represented the first decrease since April, and the downwardly revised June increase of 1.65 percent was these sectors’ best such result since January, 2025’s 1.98 percent; and

>the also very big food, beverage, and tobacco manufacturing grouping, whose 0.74 percent decline was its biggest since January’s 2.71 percent drop.

In categories of special interest, the very big and diverse machinery sector is a bellwether not only for the rest of domestic industry, but for the entire economy.  After all,  its products are used to upgrade existing facilities and build new ones.  So it was definitely good news that in July, its after-inflation production was up 0.84 percent, and that such output has now risen for five straight months.  Moreover, June’s initially reported 0.71 percent decrease is now estimated to have been an increase of 0.10 percent.

And in the heavily subsidized semiconductor and other related components category, (a subset of computer and electronic product manufacturing), a 2.38 percent July boost in inflation-adjusted production resulted in its third straight record high.

These Fed results by no means demonstrate that domestic industry is currently booming.  But especially given that its current growth isn’t coming off a recession (when output increases tend to be large partly because they’re coming off low baseliness) or a pandemic (all the more so), a near-20 year best win streak could turn out to be a pretty good start.