(What’s Left of) Our Economy: Illegal Alien Workers Keep Leaving, Legal Blue-Collar Worker Wages Keep Improving

July brought yet another data month of U.S. inflation-adjusted wages statistics showing just the results expected by the Trump administration and immigration realists (like me).  Specifically, the president’s deportations and border security crackdown are benefiting blue-collar workers who are legally resident in the nation.  

Further, the July data, which come from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) figures for average real hourly wages, were better for what it calls “production and nonsupervisory workers” than the June numbers. (See the BLS interactive data tables reflecting this release.)   

As with previous RealityChek posts on the subject, today’s analysis will cover 23 sectors of the economy identified by the pro-immigration Center for Migration Studies with the highest share of illegal alien workers.  It will compare the change in constant dollar hourly wages for private sector blue-collar employees* in these industries so far during the restrictionist Trump 2.0 administration with that for the same sectors during the final comparable months of the Open Borders-friendly Biden administration.      

And as with those previous RealityChek posts, the data for the 23 sectors will be broken into two groups.  The first consists of five very broad categories of the economy for which BLS figures are available through July.  The second consists of 18 narrower categories whose results always lag one month behind.  Many of the industries in that second grouping are subsectors of the five industries in the first group.

The first big takeaway is that for the five broadest categories, after-inflation blue-collar wages rose faster three sectors during the first 17 data months of the second Trump administration (beginning in February, 2025, the first full month of the president’s second term) than they did during the final 17 months of the Biden administration.  That’s the same ratio revealed in BLS’ June numbers.  

But the July results did reveal one finding in the Biden administration’s favor.  In one of the five sectors (manufacturing), wage trends moved in its favor – that is, a better Biden period performance got even better.  In three other sectors, the trends moved in the Trump administration’s favor – that is, a better Trump period performance got even better.  And in one category – leisure and hospitality – the margin between the two remained the same.

In addition, that set of results actually leaned more in the Biden administration’s favor than their June counterparts – which showed the same three-to-two Trump edge overall, but in which the trends in all five industries moved in the current president’s favor.

In two sectors, a Trump advantage got wider, in one sector (construction), a Biden edge flipped to a Trump edge, and in two sectors, a Biden margin narrowed.

Here are the July results for those five very broad sectors.  The inflation-adjusted wage numbers for the final Biden months are in the left column and those for Trump 2.0 so far are in the right:      

                                     Aug. 23-Jan. 25                   Feb. 25-July 26

Construction                   +1.57 percent                     +2.91 percent  

Retail                             -1.08 percent                       +0.88 percent                               

Manufacturing              +3.63 percent                       +1.73 percent             

Transportation &              

   Warehousing              +0.75 percent                       +2.56 percent   

Leisure & hospitality    +1.43 percent                       +1.25 percent     

For the 18 sectors for which results are available only through June, real wage performance was better during the first Trump months than during the final comparable Biden months in 11 industries, whereas the Biden months held the advantage in seven.  That’s a more Trump-ian result than the June data showed – in which the Trump lead was ten to eight.

Moreover, the July results show that, of these 18 sectors, the wage trends in 11 moved in a Trump-ian direction (including a Trump margin widening, a Biden edge narrowing, or a Biden edge becoming a Trump edge), and moved in a Biden direction (including a Biden edge widening or a Trump edge narrowing) in seven.

That’s a much more Trump-ian result than for July, when wage trends moved in the current president’s direction in only two sectors, and in a Biden direction in 16.    

Here are the June results for these 18 narrower sectors.  Again, the inflation-adjusted wage numbers for the final Biden months are in the left column and those for Trump 2.0 so far are in the right:    

                                        Sept. 23-Jan 25                 Feb. 25-June 26

General freight trucking    +0.52 percent                   +2.03 percent 

Truck transportation         +0.52 percent                    +2.06 percent   

Grocery/convenience

Stores                                +1.05 percent                   +0.52 percent 

Janitorial services              -1.15 percent                   +1.17 percent    

Landscaping services         +1.17 percent                 +7.25 percent  

Waste collection                 +7.52 percent                 +4.72 percent                                          

Disability, mental health &               

substance abuse facilities    +2.54 percent                +0.27 percent    

Elder care facilities            +9.62 percent                  -3.38 percent                                                        

Retirement communities    +0.14 percent                 +0.56 percent     

Child care services             +0.16 percent                  -1.28 percent    

Repair & maintenance       +3.45 percent                 +1.21 percent  

Car washes                         -2.13 percent                      0 percent   

Personal & laundry               

 Services                             +0.57 percent                +5.02 percent  

Hair, nail and 

skin care services               +0.13 percent                 +2.25 percent  

Parking lots & garages        -2.18 percent               +10.42 percent 

Accommodation                  -1.18 percent                 +2.24 percent 

Non-casino hotels/motels   -1.76 percent                  +3.29 percent    

Food services 

& drinking places                +2.17 percent                +1.47 percent      

The acceleration of legal blue collar workers’ wages as illegal aliens leave the workforce and the quantity of civilian labor available to American employers shrinks should come as no surprise – unless you don’t believe in the laws of supply and demand (which you should).  It’s also another reminder that criminals aren’t the only aliens whose unlawful presence in the United States is harming the nation’s legal residents.