The post Restaurant Industry in Review: Trends from November 2025 appeared first on Black Box Intelligence.
Monthly Restaurant Trends Review
Out of the Box: November 2025
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Sales growth stalled at 0.0% as negative traffic (-2.9%) pulled down performance across all segments.
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Fast Casual was the only segment to improve sales year-over-year, while Fine Dining decelerated sharply.
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Florida sales plummeted from first to worst after an Arctic cold blast froze consumer activity.
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Limited Service staffing remains fragile; only 50% of brands report being fully staffed in front-of-house.
In This Issue:
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The Big Picture: November Sales and Traffic Trends
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Segment Focus: Family Dining
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Best vs Worst: Region and Segment
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Staffing Review: Limited Service, Non-Management Turnover
November 2025 Restaurant Industry Trends
The Big Picture: Sales and Traffic Trends
Unfortunately, the industry is now in a clear downward trend. For the fourth consecutive month, we have seen weaker same-store sales and traffic growth than the month prior.
With consumer sentiment hitting near-record lows in November—driven by rising inflation and unemployment—a pullback in spending was expected. Tougher year-over-year comparisons are also a factor, as Q4 2024 was the strongest quarter of last year.
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Sadly, same-store sales growth was flat (0.0%) in November. This marks the first time since February that the industry failed to post positive growth.
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To put this deceleration in perspective: the industry consistently posted growth above 2.0% from June through August, but has declined steadily since.
Same-store traffic growth fell to -2.9%, a sharp drop from the -2.0% reported in October. This represents the industry’s worst traffic performance since February.
| Month | Dec. ’24 | Jan | Feb | Mar. | Apr | May | Jun | July | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov |
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| Comp. Sales | -0.3% | +2.5% | -2.5% | +0.9% | +1.1% | +1.4% | +2.0% | +2.4% | +2.3% | +1.1% | +0.7% | +0.0% |
| Comp. Traffic | -3.2% | -1.3% | -5.7% | -2.2% | -1.5% | -1.0% | -0.9% | +0.1% | -0.2% | -1.5% | -2.0% | -2.9% |
November 2025 Restaurant Segment Performance
Best vs Worst: Restaurant Industry Segment
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The lone bright spot: Fast Casual was the only segment to post a small improvement in year-over-year same-store sales growth during November. Every other segment sadly saw weaker performance compared to October.
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Hardest hit: The sharpest deceleration in sales growth came from the Upscale Casual and Fine Dining segments, signaling a pullback in higher-ticket dining.
The “Year of Casual Dining” shows cracks
November confirmed that 2025 is the year of Casual Dining, which returned to the top spot for same-store sales growth. This segment has ranked #1 for eight of the first eleven months this year—and was the runner-up in the other three.
However, even this leader is seeing a worrying trend. Casual Dining’s performance has softened every single month since July, with growth rates slipping further each period.
Family Dining struggles continue
Unfortunately, Family Dining remains the segment under the most pressure. For the second consecutive month, it posted the industry’s weakest same-store sales growth.
November Restaurant Performance: Region Focus
Best vs Worst: Region
Geographically, the slowdown was widespread. Most of the country saw a deceleration in sales growth during November, with only Mountain Plains, New England, and California posting even small improvements over the prior year.
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The Positive Few: Sadly, only four regions managed to achieve positive year-over-year sales growth: Mountain Plains, the Mid-Atlantic, New York-New Jersey, and the Midwest.
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A Surprise Leader: The Mountain Plains broke recent trends to become the top-performing region. This is a notable shift, as the region has languished in the bottom half for same-store sales growth for most of the year.
The Softest Markets & Weather Impacts
The regions with the weakest performance were Florida, the Southeast, California, and the Western region.
Florida saw a particularly harsh reversal. After ranking as the industry’s top performer for the previous three months, performance plummeted due to extreme weather.
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An Arctic cold blast drove temperatures to record lows.
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Around mid-month, average temperatures were 20°F colder than normal—the largest temperature deviation globally at the time. Unfortunately, this froze consumer activity in a key market.
Restaurant Segment Deep Dive: November 2025
State of Restaurant Segment Performance: Family Dining
Family Dining has ranked as the industry’s worst-performing segment for traffic over the past two months. However, the struggle extends beyond the recent term: year-to-date in 2025, the segment trails only Fine Dining for the weakest traffic growth.
Unfortunately, as the economy cools, mid- and lower-income consumers are becoming increasingly apprehensive about their financial outlook. This segment is particularly sensitive to those shifts:
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Trading Down & Out: Guests are frequently shifting spend to Limited Service brands or leaving the industry entirely for grocery.
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Inflationary Pressure: Our analysis confirms that during high-inflation periods, Family Dining (along with Casual Dining) typically sees sharper traffic pullbacks than the broader industry.
Staffing, Workforce, And Employment Focus
Current Turnover Trends in Limited Service Restaurants
It would be premature to declare that turnover challenges are behind us, particularly for Limited Service brands. With median turnover rates still exceeding 100% for hourly, non-management employees in Quick Service and Fast Casual, operators continue to face significant staffing headwinds.
According to our Annual Total Rewards Survey, staffing stability remains elusive as of the first half of 2025:
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Only 50% of Limited Service companies reported being fully staffed for front-of-house hourly positions.
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Back-of-house positions fared only slightly better, at 54%.
While a softening labor market and rising unemployment should theoretically reduce turnover pressure next year, new risks are emerging. Unfortunately, potential disruptions to the workforce from increased immigration enforcement could renew staffing challenges and reignite upward pressure on wages.
State of Restaurant Workforce in 2025
Go Deep on the Latest Workforce Trends with Our Comprehensive Annual Research Study
Our Take on State of the Restaurant Industry in November 2025
BBI Says…
“Economic conditions and low consumer sentiment suggest the industry must brace for deepening contraction. Sales shifted from expansion throughout 2025 to stagnation in November, driven by steep traffic declines, and we may see negative sales growth in December. As purchasing power shifts, we expect a ‘trade-down’ effect where slightly more affluent guests seek lower price points, positioning Quick Service and Fast Casual brands to fare better in this difficult environment.
“Value perception remains the primary traffic driver and is expected to dominate through the first half of 2026. However, winning the ‘value wars’ requires more than just discounting. Our guest sentiment analysis reveals that when guests describe a dining occasion as ‘worth it,’ about half the time they don’t even mention price. True value is often defined by service, food quality, and consistency—making value creation a shared responsibility across the entire organization.”
State of Restaurant Industry
Quarterly Webinar Deepdives
We go into way more detail in our flagship quarterly State of the Industry (SOTI) webinar – our definitive take on the latest developments and a must attend for anyone in the restaurant industry.
Monthly Restaurant Trend Updates
Previous Out of the Box Articles
The post Restaurant Industry in Review: Trends from November 2025 appeared first on Black Box Intelligence.
