Who actually wins the autonomous vehicle future?

There was once a time when Uber was heavily investing in autonomous vehicles and rides. Then that stopped in an effort to become profitable. But now, out of necessity, it’s back. Uber recently announced that the company will invest “$10 billion of capital over the coming years to bring AVs to market at scale.”

Uber’s belief is that the self-driving car industry won’t be dominated by just one company. Instead, it will be a mixed ecosystem where some companies build their own cars and ride-hailing apps, and others plug into existing networks. And in this world, it is these networks — like Uber — that will become the most valuable piece of the puzzle.

Perhaps.

Whether they believe this or not, Uber basically has to say this because they are the platform aggregator. They do not build or operate any self-driving vehicles of their own — at least not anymore. These parts of their business were sold off.

Autonomous vehicles are a wicked technical challenge. The edge cases are extraordinarily difficult to solve. If only a select few companies solve them, and solve them well, then there’s an argument to be made that they will capture the majority of the market.

But if AV technology becomes commoditized and it ends up being all about the brand and who can aggregate demand the best, well then, Uber could very well be right. They already have global scale.

My view is that Waymo has such a commanding lead when it comes to AVs that they have the leverage in the short and medium term. There are also zero switching costs for ride-hailing customers. I’ll use whatever is better. So if I’m Uber, I’m worried about Waymo, which is presumably why they are starting to have differing opinions.