Im-Politic: Why it Looks Like the Democrats Have Nothing

Over a pizza yesterday with a college buddy, a depressing thought occurred: The Democrats have nothing.

It was depressing not because I have any regard for today’s Democratic Party. I don’t. It was depressing because a truly healthy American democracy needs a competitive left-of-center political force of some kind. Obviously, because the two-party system has been so entrenched for so long (blame or credit the advantages of incumbency for that), the Democrats pretty much monopolize any chances of one emerging again. But if you run down the major issues facing the nation today, it’s tough to see today’s Democratic Party digging itself out of the huge holes in which it’s stuck (and indeed, into which for the most part it seems to have purposely dived).

Sure, the actual presidential and Congressional votes were close. But take a look at this recent poll by Gallup and ask yourself if the bulk of today’s Democrats are likely to take any actions to overcome the massive disapproval deficits they face.

I’m as aware as anyone of the flawed record of major pollsters. But these results are so dramatic that no fair-minded person would dismiss them – or their political consequences.

According to Gallup, 67 percent of respondents believe that “ground was lost” during the Biden administration on dealing with the federal budget deficit. Are there any even mainstream (not fringe) Democrats willing to contemplate the kinds of budget cuts that could even slow the growth of spending, except by proposing virtually confiscatory tax hikes? Not that I’ve read about. And although the Republicans’ record on deficit control is nothing to brag about, either, how could today’s Democrats possibly grab the mantle of fiscal responsibility?

Gallup reports that 64 percent of respondents believe that ground was lost on immigration issues. Are Democrats really going to outflank the Republicans on border security?

Fifty nine percent of those surveyed said progress was lost on economic issues overall during President Biden’s watch. Surely that’s due to the burst Bidenflation during his term – the worst cost-of-living crisis in four decades. The Democrats’ answer so far is the demagogic promise to outlaw corporate greed. As if the massive federal deficit spending they keep supporting had only “a little bit” to do with the rapid price increases on President Biden’s watch – a head-exploding claim made earlier this month by his Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen?

A smaller 40 percent saw the Biden administration as a time of backtracking on “national defense and the military” – but the Biden years registered a net negative rating of 19 percentage points. What will the Democrats’ response be? Backing a bigger military budget? Supporting reforms that will make Pentagon spending more efficient? If so, during his confirmation hearing, why didn’t Democratic Senators ask Defense Secretary nominee Pete Hegseth a single question about matters like streamlining procurement or improving the readiness of existing forces, much less on adapting to emerging forms of next-generation high tech warfare?

Run down the Gallup list and the Democratic predicament on other major issues seems equally hopeless. Will they get tough on crime and on terrorism? Will they support any serious overhaul of primary and secondary education that won’t rile their powerful teachers union donors? Will they repudiate the anti-tariff rhetoric of their presidential standard-bearer last year, Kamala Harris, in order to win back the working class? Doubtful, given that two prominent and sympathetic pundits have just advised them to abandon their quest to regain blue-collar voters. (See here and here.)

Though the Gallup poll oddly didn’t shed much light on minority-specific issues, what promising plans do today’s Democrats have to stem the tide of defecting Black and Hispanic voters – two of their main pillars of support?

I was also surprised at the survey’s neglect of women’s issues, especially abortion. The latter of course was a big winner for Democrats in the 2022 off-year elections, and I expected it to work well for them last November. But for whatever reason, the outrage over the Supreme Court’s decision to strike down the Roe vs Wade abortion rights protections, and Donald Trump’s strong support for them, was much less salient this time around. As more time passes, will its importance rebound?

In all, “The situation for gay, lesbian, and transgender people” was the only issue (of 18 total!) on which Gallup respondents said progress was made under President Biden. That’s clearly a very slender reed on which to base political victory.

In fact, the best hope for the Democrats in the foreseeable future looks like President Trump – specifically, the chance that he will turn out to be an outright failure domestically and internationally. Or that his achievements fall dramatically short of his grandiose campaign promises. Or that some Watergate-scale scandal is uncovered. Or that he takes some action that utterly trashes the Constitution and/or civil liberties. Or that he publicly flies off the handle. And each of the above is eminently conceivable.

Barring such disasters, Democrats could hope somehow to convince the electorate that they’re on the way under Trump, or could repeatedly attack Mr. Trump’s often off-putting personal style, or could try some combination of the two. In other words, they could keep reminding voters that they’re not Trump. Yet both tactics failed dismally last year.

Instead, today’s Democrats are left with the options of (1) trying to convey optimism (tough to do for an opposition party) and (2) insisting that they can carry out at least some Trump-y policies better than the Republicans. Which is to say, if the Democrats don’t actually have nothing, they’re not far from it.