It was no surprise that yesterday’s official report on consumer inflation (for April) showed strong increases on both a monthly …Continue reading →
It was no surprise that yesterday’s official report on consumer inflation (for April) showed strong increases on both a monthly and annual basis, and that both were led by Iran War surges in energy prices.
It was much more surprising that in key respect, on a monthly basis, energy and even gasoline price inflation slowed significantly, and that when it comes to tariffs, the prices of many consumer goods subjected to major duties during Trump 2.0 are still lower in absolute terms – in some cases, significantly so – than they were at their peaks during the high inflation period during the Biden administration.
Nonetheless, jumping energy prices mean that the second Trump administration can no longer accurately proclaim itself a superior inflation fighter than its Democratic predecessor. And even though energy price inflation might have slowed sequentially for the time being, the Biden experience made clear that consumers (and voters) are understandably more concerned with the fact that such cooling still means that, in absolute terms, prices practically across the board are considerably higher today than they were several years ago.
Those surprising (at least to me) energy trends come through clearly in the monthly figures. The April increase in the headline Consumer Price Increase (CPI) of 0.64 percent was decidedly weaker than March’s 0.87 percent (which was the hottest such read since the 1.26 percent recorded for June, 2022). And calming (though by no means calm) energy prices were the main reason.
That March sequential CPI spurt featured a 21.2 percent monthly increase in the price of gasoline and a 10.9 percent rise in total energy prices.
But April’s slower monthly CPI advance featured a much better 5.4 percent worsening (though by no means good) of gasoline prices and overall energy prices that were a much lower 3.8 percent more expensive.
The monthly core CPI results add to the case that inflation pressures ranged far beyond energy.
These figures strip out energy as well as food prices, since both are considered volatile for reasons having little to do with the economy’s fundamental vulnerability to inflation (like wars).
And their sequential rate of increase in April (0.38 percent) was almost twice that of March (0.20 percent. The new figure was the highest since January, 2025’s 0.43 percent.
On annual basis, though, higher prices have clearly been led by energy. April’s increase of 3.78 percent in headline CPI (the biggest such increase since May, 2023’s 4.13 percent) was a big speed-up over March’s 3.29 percent. And whereas energy prices were up 12.59 percent year-on-year in March, their April increase shot up to 17.54 percent.
By contrast, annual core CPI – which strips out those energy prices – increased only from 2.60 percent in March to 2.74 percent in April. And that was annual core CPI’s worst such performance since only last September.
And likely more important for now politically as it is economically, the new inflation release shows that the most useful comparison shows the Biden administration’s record on inflation was better than that of the second Trump administration so far.
Since February, 2025 (the first full month of President Trump’s second term), the cumulative headline CPI increase has been 3.98 percent. Over the final 14 months of the Biden presidency, it became just 3.51 percent higher.
And from March to April, that inflation-fighting edge has widened in the Biden administration’s favor. For as of this March, headline CPI climbed by 3.32 percent under Trump 2.0, while over the final 13 months of the Biden presidency, it was only slightly better – rising by 3.31 percent.
And once more highlighting the role played by energy prices in this Trump-ian deterioration, during the second Trump administration so far, core CPI has risen by a cumulative 3.06 percent – a good deal lower than the final comparable Biden total of 3.92 percent. As of March, the Trump edge was only slightly wider – 2.67 percent to 3.65 percent.
Tariffs, however, played a smaller role in April’s worsening consumer prices than has previously been the case. For example, since Mr. Trump imposed his “Liberation Day” duties in April, 2025, core CPI has risen by a total of 2.74 percent. During the final comparable 12 Biden presidency months, it was up by 3.28 percent.
As of March on a post-Liberation Day basis, core CPI had increased by 2.36 percent versus the 2.88 percent increase during the final Biden presidency months. So the edge enjoyed by the Trump 2.0 record actually improved slightly.
The current president’s tariff inflation record actually looks even better upon examining the evidence from narrower CPI categories where the tariffs were highly concentrated. One of the most important is a grouping called “commodities less food, energy, and used vehicles.”
In the year since Liberation Day, these “core goods” prices have grown by 2.63 percent. During the comparable final 12 Biden months, they were up by 2.39 percent. And once more, over the most recent data month, the advantage enjoyed by the Trump record has improved slightly, for as of March, core goods prices had increased by 2.42 percent versus the comparable Biden rise of 2.07 percent.
Further, examining the tariff inflation record looks better still for Trump 2.0 upon examining most of the even narrower goods categories RealityChek has followed.
Unfortunately, apparel was not one of these industries. Prices here increased by 0.64 percent on month in April – a much better result than March’s 1.03 percent.
Since Liberation Day, apparel has gotten 4.17 percent more expensive, versus edging up just 0.58 percent during the final comparable 12 Biden administration months. A big Biden margin by any measure. As of the March CPI release, moreover, these prices rose by 4.01 percent on a post-Liberation Day basis, versus barely budging during the final comparable Biden months. So the Biden edge widened.
Footwear prices tell an even worse story from a Trump-ian and pro-tariff perspective. On a monthly basis, the April gain of 1.39 percent was much faster than March’s 0.85 percent. Indeed, it was the strongest such advance since the 1.99 percent of April, 2021.
Since Liberation Day, footwear prices have risen by 4.18 percent versus their 1.31 percent slide during the final, comparable 12 Biden months. As of the March CPI release, footwear had become 3.86 percent pricier while they became 0.71 percent cheaper during the final,, comparable eleven Biden months. So here, too a Biden edge grew.
Price trends in the tools, hardware and outdoor equipment grouping were somewhat better. They actually fell sequentially in April by 0.79 percent – for their first monthly drop since September. In March, they rose by 0.79 percent.
On a post-Liberation Day basis, this category of goods has become 5.03 percent more expensive. During the final, comparable Biden months, their prices decreased by 0.74 percent. Yet as of the March CPI release, these prices were up by 5.16 percent versus declining by 0.76 percent during the final, comparable Biden months. So the Biden edge narrowed slightly.
The situation was different, though, in furniture and bedding grouping. Its 0.35 percent April monthly price decrease was the second straight decline (following March’s 0.42 percent slip).
On a post-Liberation Day basis, these goods have become only 1.30 percent expensive. They did, however, tumble 2.63 percent during the final, comparable Biden period. The March CPI data showed that since Liberation Day, furniture and bedding prices had risen by 1.66 percent whereas during the final comparable Biden months, it fell by 1.98 percent – meaning that the Biden inflation-fighting edge had increased.
Even so, furniture and bedding prices were fully 4.61 percent lower in April than during their Biden presidency peak of August, 2022.
Volatile appliance prices were even more encouraging for Trump and tariff supporters. Their 0.38 percent sequential April falloff came on the heels of a 1.56 percent plunge in March that was the greatest since December’s 2.63 percent.
On a post-Liberation Day basis, they’ve been down, too – by 0.74 percent. That decrease pales before their 6.57 percent price nosedive during the final, comparable 12 Biden months. Yet as of the March CPI release, these prices had dropped by 0.83 percent, while their decrease during the final, comparable 11 Biden months was just 4.70 percent. So the Biden margin here narrowed significantly.
And best of all, since their Biden administration peak in April, 2022, appliance prices have cratered by 18.68 percent.
Good news for tariff and Trump backers continued with the auto parts and equipment results. After a monthly March worsening of 0.70 percent (their worst such performance since December’s 0.95 percent), these prices retreated by 0.22 percent in March.
Since Liberation Day, they increased by 3.82 percent versus a comparable Biden advance of 1.44 percent. But that means that the Biden edge shrunk slightly here, too, because as of the March data, these automotive prices were up 4.04 percent versus a comparable Biden increase of 1.63 percent.
More good tariffs and inflation data came from the results on new motor vehicles. Their prices were 0.16 percent lower in April than in March, after inching up by 0.10 percent sequentially. Since Liberation Day, they’re up a modest 0.23 percent versus their 0.34 percent decline during that final, comparable Biden period. But that’s an improvement over the March comparisons, at which time post-Liberation Day new vehicles prices were 0.39 percent higher, versus having fallen by 0.28 percent during that final, comparable Biden period.
And more important, new vehicles were still 0.19 percent cheaper in April than they were at their Biden peak in September, 2023.
Between March and April, in the sporting goods and toys categories, the post-Liberation Day Biden versus Trump comparisons widened slightly in the Biden record’s favor. But otherwise, the new numbers look good from a pro-tariff and pro-Trump perspective.
In the former, prices did increase in April for the fifth straight month, but the gain was barely visible (0.01 percent) and was much smaller than March’s 0.12 percent. Since Liberation Day, sporting goods prices have advanced by 3.95 percent but sank by 3.79 percent during the final, comparable Biden period. The March comparison was Trump up 3.85 percent and Biden down 3.21 percent, so Biden’s edge grew.
And yet, sporting goods prices are off by 3.37 percent since their Biden peak in February, 2023.
Toy prices were up big time sequentially in April for the second straight month, with the 0.76 percent advance following a March burst of 2.26 percent that was their worst such performance since the 2.59 percent jump back in November, 1986.
Moreover, on post-Liberation Day basis, they’re 3.20 percent higher as of the April data, versus having fallen by 2.48 percent during the final, comparable Biden period. Since the March results showed a post-Liberation Day rise of 2.42 percent versus a drop of 1.73 percent during that final, comparable Biden stretch, the Biden record’s advantage improved slightly.
As with several other heavily tariffed goods, however, toy prices are lower than during their Biden administration peak – in this case, a substantial 6.34 percent since March, 2023.
Until the Iran War ends – or more precisely, the Strait of Hormuz returns to something close to its pre-war normal (they’re not the same thing) – there’s little doubt that oil-fueled U.S. inflation will continue. The outlook for the tariff inflation, however, could well return to murkiness given the likelihood of new Trump duties to replace those struck down earlier this year by the Supreme Court, the possibility of new trade agreements that will lower some levies, and reality that the prices of even heavily tariff-ed goods will keep depending on many other factors having nothing to do with trade policy at all.
