Today’s official U.S. jobs report (for April) indicated that manufacturing employment has entered a somewhat murky phase. Indeed, many major …Continue reading →
Today’s official U.S. jobs report (for April) indicated that manufacturing employment has entered a somewhat murky phase. Indeed, many major sub-sectors saw either multi-month bests or multi-month worsts.
Another major takeaway: Even last month’s modest 2,000 monthly payrolls decline left domestic industry’s employment record under tariff-y Trump 2.0 still considerably better than that of the final comparable stretch under the pre-tariff-y Biden administration.
April’s manufacturing jobs setback followed an unrevised 15,000 March increase that was its biggest monthly improvement since its 22,000 jump in November, 2023. And February’s previously reported 6,000 job loss was upgraded to an advance of 1,000.
These results mean that, during the fourteen data months of Trump 2.0 (starting with February, 2025, the first full month of the president’s second term), net new manufacturing job declines stood at 75,000. During the final fourteen months of the Biden administration, these losses hit 186,000 – way more than twice as much.
Yet this Trump-Biden gap actually shifted in favor of the Biden presidency from the statistics as of March, when the cumulative Trump employment decreases had reached 73,000, but those during that final comparable Biden period were 199,000.
The Trump record continues to hold the edge on a post-Liberation Day basis, too. Since his announcement of major duties in April, 2025, U.S. manufacturing employment is down by 66,000. During the final twelve months of the Biden administration, these jobs had plunged by 202,000.
And contrary to the trend for all the second Trump administration, the numbers have shifted in his favor since March – when the post-Liberation Day declines stood at 64,000 but the final comparable Biden decreases were a smaller 179,000.
The biggest job winners among the broadest manufacturing subsectors tracked by the Labor Department in its monthly employment releases were:
>The very big chemicals industry, where headcount rose by 2,400. That was its strongest monthly growth since March, 2024’s 3,500. But it followed a March sequential downturn of 5,900 that was its worst since the 6,500 recorded in March, 2023;
>The also big fabricated metal product sector, whose 1,900 April jobs increase was its third consecutive monthly improvement. Moreover, that rise followed a 4,000 March surge that was the industry’s best such performance since the 6,400 jump in October, 2022. These strong fabricated metal products results are significant since it’s – obviously – a major metals-using industry, and such sectors are widely thought to have been kneecapped by metals tariffs;
>That heavily tariffed primary metals sector, whose, 1,500 monthly employment advance in April was its first such increase since January, and its biggest since the same improvement recorded in June, 2023;
>The huge food manufacturing sector, whose payrolls also rose by 1,500 on month in April for its first increase since last October’s 900, and its biggest since May, 2025’s 1,900;
>The also heavily tariffed and large electrical equipment, appliance, and component complex, which saw payrolls climb for the fourth straight month in April. The 1,100 increase pushed employment in these industries to its highest level since 2006, and the winning streak was its longest since the seven-month span between September, 2024 and March, 2025. P.S. appliances are also big metals users whose employment record hasn’t suffered much from the steel and aluminum tariffs.
The biggest April job losers among those broad manufacturing subsectors were:
>The huge transportation equipment complex, which shrank employment by 3,600 for the worst monthly result since last October’s 4,400 reduction. But these losses followed a 7,700 March surge that was these industries’ biggest since the 33,700 blowout of November, 2024 once a major strike at aerospace giant Boeing ended;
>The smallish beverage, tobacco, and leather and allied product manufacturing grouping, where employment sank by 2,500. But March’s hiring of 3,700 was these companies’ strongest since an identical increase in December, 2024;
>The big and diverse machinery sector, whose fortunes affect all of manufacturing and the entire economy since its products are used to refurbish existing facilities and build new ones. In April it shed 1,800 workers, but that decrease was its first since last December’s 400;
>The very small and import-ravaged apparel sector, which also saw employment tumble by 1,800 for its biggest monthly loss since last November’s 2,700. One minor consolation: March’s monthly increase of 500 was its first since January, 2025’s 200 and the biggest since April, 2023’ 800;
>Paper manufacturing, whose 1,700 monthly jobs decrease was its first sequential setback since last December’s 1,800.
Regarding industries of special interest, the very big and heavily tariffed automotive complex cut headcount by 3,000 in April, for its first such retreat since last December’s 4,300.
And the lavishly subsidized semiconductors and related devices category (where jobs data is always one month behind) suffered its fourth straight employment decline – a decrease of 400.
The Iran War and uncertainties over how and when it may end seem likeliest to add to the murk surrounding the prospects for manufacturing employment. (Unless it does lead to a huge defense buildup that’s mostly Made in the USA? Such “military Keynesianism” was a major engine of national and manufacturing-wide growth during the Cold War.)
Even beforehand, of course, manufacturing wildcards included (a) the questions of how effectively the Trump administration will be able or will want to respond to the Supreme Court’s invalidation of its Liberation Day tariffs with other duties enjoying much stronger legal authority; (b) the future of interest rates during a period of leadership transition at the Federal Reserve and continued above-target inflation; and (c) the durability of industry’s massive spending on data centers and other artificial intelligence-related infrastructure.
I’m no more clairvoyant than any of you, so RealityChek will be following upcoming monthly jobs reports with more than even its usual amount of interest.
