Today’s official U.S. data on inflation-adjusted manufacturing output (for April) not only amounted to its best monthly showing in more …Continue reading →
Today’s official U.S. data on inflation-adjusted manufacturing output (for April) not only amounted to its best monthly showing in more than a year; not only once more made clear that Trump 2.0’s record on this front left the Biden administration’s in the dust; not only therefore yet again put the lie to the widespread claims that the Trump tariffs are undermining domestic industry.
They also demonstrated that the manufacturing revival underway during the president’s second term in office isn’t simply “all due to artificial intelligence [AI].” (See, e.g., here.)
According to the Federal Reserve, keeper of this set of manufacturing statistics, domestic industry boosted its real output sequentially by 0.62 percent in April. That was their best such performance since the 1.24 percent increase in February, 2025.
Further, revisions were positive. March’s initially reported 0.17 percent monthly dip is now judged to have been a 0.05 percent advance. February’s sequential gains have now been upgraded from 0.16 percent to 0.34 percent to 0.38 percent. January’s results, however, were downgraded from a downwardly revised 0.64 percent rise to one of 0.61 percent.
As of the new numbers, during the first 14 months of the second Trump administration after-inflation manufacturing production is up by 1.77 percent. During the final 14 months of the Biden administration, it was down by 1.52 percent.
Since as of March, the Trump record’s edge over the Biden record was up 1.07 percent versus also down 1.52 percent, the Trump margin has grown.
And in the eleven data months that have passed since Liberation Day (in April, 2025), such price-adjusted manufacturing production has been up by 0.68 percent. During the final eleven months of the Biden administration, it fell by 1.23 percent.
Even on a post-Liberation Day basis, the Trump manufacturing record holds the edge over the Biden presidency’s.
Since the president imposed his “Liberation Day” levies last April (which were struck down earlier this year by the Supreme Court), domestic manufacturers’ constant dollar production has grown by 1.38 percent. During the final, comparable 12 months of the Biden administration, it inched up just 0.02 percent. But in this case, the edge has narrowed in the Biden years’ favor.
As for the belief that “it’s all AI” (clearly meant to discredit the idea that U.S.-based manufacturing’s progress has little or nothing to do with any Trump policy moves), the facts document price-adjusted output increases that are much broader.
One obvious sign (others will be presented below) comes from a Fed category called “Manufacturing ex. computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors.” In April, its after-inflation output rose sequentially by 0.59 percent.
Much of the improvement came from the (non-AI) automotive sector, where real production levels have been volatile. April’s increase, however, was the fifth straight.
Moreover, during Trump 2.0, real output in manufacturing outside those tech sectors has advanced by 1.36 percent. During the final, comparable Biden months – when lots of data centers were going up, too – its inflation-adjusted output sank by 1.68 percent.
The same story holds for the post-Liberation Day statistics. Since April, 2025, inflation-adjusted production in the “Manufacturing ex. computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors” complex, has increased by 1.36 percent, whereas during the final, comparable Biden period, it slipped by 0.48 percent..
The biggest monthly after-inflation April manufacturing output winners among the major manufacturing sub-categories tracked by the Fed were:
>The aforementioned automotive sector, whose April monthly real production pop was its biggest since the 4.30 percent surge in May, 2025. At the same time, those sterling April results followed a 2.38 percent March decline that was the biggest since the 5.90 percent nosedive of last October.
All the same, since Liberation Day, after-inflation production in this heavily tariffed sector has climbed by 2.52 percent. During the final, comparable Biden period, it tumbled by 6.49 percent;
>the heavily subsidized computer and electronics complex, whose monthly price-adjusted output gain of 1.45 percent was its fourth straight sequential improvement, and its fourth straight all=time high;
>the very big and varied (and also non-AI-related aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment grouping, whose constant dollar production increased for the third straight month, and whose April rise of 1.58 percent was its biggest since July, 2025’s 3.39 percent burst;
>and the small (and also AI-irrelevant) printing and related support activities industry, whose April real production gain was its best since October, 2022’s 3.84 percent.
The biggest April losers among those biggest manufacturing subsectors were:
>The heavily tariffed furniture and related products industries, whose 1.77 percent price-adjusted shrinkage marked its third straight monthly retreat and its biggest since last August’s 2.26 percent.
Even worse, the furniture category’s real output level hit its lowest point since a pandemic trough in April, 2020, and aside from that plunge, to its worst since February, 1977 in a data series that goes back to 1972;
>the small and import-devastated apparel and leather goods sectors, where inflation-adjusted production contracted for the second straight month, and whose 2.25 percent decline was its worst sequential deterioration since the 4.41 percent falloff in April, 2025. In addition, this decrease brought these companies’ real production to its smallest since pandemic-y May, 2020. And other than that, the new April reading also represented a post-1972 low-point;
>the very big chemicals sector, whose -0.90 after-inflation output slide was its worst such performance since May, 2025’s 1.37 percent; and
>the big (and oil and petrochemicals-dependent) plastics and rubber products category. Its April price-adjusted production decrease of 0.93 percent was its first decline since last December and the biggest since the 1.07 percent retreat reported last October.
In sectors of special interest:
>The very big and varied machinery industry, whose products are used by the rest of the economy to build, expand, and refurbish facilities, raised its constant dollar output by 0.65 percent on month in April. Therefore, this manufacturing and economy-wide bellwether saw its first improvement since January’s 1.56 percent rise and its biggest since then;
>the heavily tariffed primary metals sectors, where real production increased by 0.94 percent in April for its best monthly gain since last August’s 0.97 percent; and
>the heavily subsidized (and of course very AI-relevant) semiconductors and related electronic components grouping. Its 1.01 percent monthly April increase brought its real production to an all-time high. Moreover, the rise was the biggest since this past January’s 3.77 percent surge.
This excellent manufacturing production report joins data in capital spending, productivity, trade deficit reduction, and even job creation, in burnishing the Trump 2.0 record on domestic industry. Similarly, it undercuts the critics who have long predicted a tariff-bred disaster for U.S.-based manufacturing, and more recently have dismissed the performance they ruled out as Trump policy-irrelevant. It makes you wonder what the next set of excuses will be – unless it raises the question of why anyone outside the critics’ ranks should really care.
