Not that it’s likely to quiet the Trump and tariff haters, but today’s official U.S. jobs report (for May) makes …Continue reading →
Not that it’s likely to quiet the Trump and tariff haters, but today’s official U.S. jobs report (for May) makes clear that, even when it comes to its biggest long-time weakness (the employment front), U.S.-based manufacturing – the chunk of the economy most heavily exposed to international trade – is doing far better under the current “tariff man” president than under his predecessor.
May’s sequential payrolls increase of 7,000 means that domestic manufacturers have added jobs for four of the last five data months. (Employment flat-lined sequentially in February.) That’s their best run since the April, 2021-November, 2022 stretch, which was boosted by the overall economy’s strong recovery from the Covid pandemic. And revisions were slightly positive.
Consequently, during the first 15 data months of Trump 2.0 (starting with February, 2025, the first full month of the president’s second term), domestic industry shed 66,000 workers. During the final 15 months of the Biden administration, such losses totaled 164,000 – nearly 2.5 times greater. This relationship remained unchanged from the initially reported April data – when the Trump 2.0 manufacturing job decline was judged to be 75,000 and the drop during the final fourteen months of the Biden administration was recorded at 186,000.
And something that will especially cheer tariff supporters (like me): In May, the Trump-Biden gap on manufacturing employment widened in Trump’s favor on a post-Liberation Day basis.
Since April, 2025, when the president announced a massive wave of high tariffs (many of which have been moderated since for various reasons), U.S. manufacturing jobs have declined by 57,000. But during the final 13 months of the Biden administration, such employment nosedived by 199,000. That’s about three and a half times greater.
And that’s an improvement in Trump’s favor from the previously recorded April numbers – at which time on a post-Liberation Day basis, domestic industry had reduced headcount by 66,000, compared with the 202,000 falloff during the final twelve months of the Biden administration.
The biggest job winners among the broadest manufacturing subsectors tracked by the Labor Department in its monthly employment releases were:
>the very big fabricated metal product sector, which boosted payrolls in May for the fourth straight month. Moreover, the 6,700 jobs pop was the sector’s biggest since the 8,700 jump in March, 2022 – again, during the early stages of the strong post-pandemic recovery. And especially important about these results – fabricated metal products were among the industries expected to be hammered by Mr. Trump’s metals tariffs. Not only has nothing of the kind happened, but as of June, many of these products will be protected by new levies on many metals-using products;
>the also very big – and varied – transportation equipment cluster, which added 4,900 positions on month in May. But employment in this grouping has been volatile. April’s initially reported 3,600 in job cuts was revised down to a plummet of 4,700. But in March, its companies added 7,300 employees – a figure revised down from 7,700 but still its best such performance since the end of a major strike at aerospace giant Boeing led the rehiring of 33,700 staff in November, 2024
>the diverse miscellaneous durable goods category, whose 3,000 net new monthly hires in May represented its second straight increase and its biggest since payrolls soared by 9,600 in November, 2021 – again, during the strong post-covid recovery; and
>the very big and varied chemicals sector, where an employment increase of 1,200 represented its second straight sequential advance. At the same time, April’s initially recorded jobs gains of 2,400 – the best such result since March, 2024’s 3,500 – was revised down to a rise of 1,900, and April followed a 4,200 drop in March that was the sector’s worst such performance since the 4,500 cratering of July, 2023. At least those March results were revised up from a previously reported loss of 5,900:
The biggest losers among the broadest manufacturing subsectors tracked by the Labor Department in its monthly employment releases were:
>the large plastics and rubber products grouping, whose 6,100 employment nosedive was its second straight monthly decline and the worst since the 67,100 collapse (yes, you read that right) during April, 2020, at the height of the pandemic;
>the very large food manufacturing complex, whose 3,600 job losses in May were its worst such performance since last November’s 3,800 drop;
>the smallish wood product manufacturing industry, which reduced headcount sequentially by 1,900. Employment fell not only for the second straight month, but for the eleventh time in the past twelve months; and
>the also smallish – and import-hammered – furniture and related product industries, for which the 1,000 employment slip in May extended its losing streak to three months, and where payrolls have weakened for nine of the past ten months.
As for manufacturing sectors of special interest:
>the very big and diverse machinery sector added 1,100 jobs in May for its best such performance since its 2,400 employment growth last September. Machinery is especially important because its products are used in building new facilities across the entire economy and refurbishing existing facilities;
>the big and heavily tariffed automotive sector boosted employment in May by 3,600 – a nice rebound from April’s 4,600 tumble (revised down from an initially reported 3,000). Motor vehicle and parts employment has nonetheless increased for four of the last five months;
>the also heavily tariffed primary metals sector hired 1,100 workers in May; and
>the lavishly subsidized semiconductors and related devices category (where jobs data is always one month behind) shed 600 positions in April for its fifth straight month of declines. Moreover, March’s originally reported slip of 400 has been revised down to one of 500.
These jobs figures of course come on top of data on domestic manufacturing’s inflation-adjusted growth, productivity, capital spending, and its trade deficit that all reveal the beginnings of an impressive comeback by U.S.-based industry after long years in the doldrums. Tariffs don’t deserve all the credit. Trump 2.0 tax and regulatory relief have no doubt played a big role, too. But it’s getting ever more difficult to dispute that this intriguing combination of economic policies – along with the president’s immigration crackdown – is producing results that almost no one in mainstream economics and broader policy circles (either on the left or right of center) foresaw – and that backing off them would bring bigger benefits.
